Daily NBA Injury Report and Analysis for Friday, January 16

The most significant injury swing on Friday’s NBA slate sits in Toronto, where the Los Angeles Clippers have three primary starters listed as questionable: Kawhi Leonard (ankle), Ivica Zubac, and John Collins (groin). Leonard’s availability is the headliner, given his 28.2 points per game and a massive team split this season: the Clippers are 15-14 with him (51.7% win rate) versus 2-8 without him (20.0%).

Across six games, several meaningful absences can reshape rotations and pricing, including Anthony Edwards (foot) ruled out for Minnesota, Darius Garland and Sam Merrill (hand) out for Cleveland, and Domantas Sabonis out for Sacramento. Long-term, all-season absences are not included in the analysis below.

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Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets

Chicago is without Josh Giddey and Zach Collins, while Kevin Huerter (hip) is listed as probable. Huerter’s status matters because the Bulls’ season results swing hard with him: Chicago is 18-17 with Huerter (51.4%) versus 1-4 without him (20.0%). If he plays through the hip issue, it stabilizes a rotation already missing Giddey’s 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game.

For Brooklyn, the injury report is thin and also light on usable context. Ziaire Williams is out, but no performance splits are provided. Haywood Highsmith is also out, but he is flagged as out all season and is not relevant to day-to-day betting impact.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers

Indiana is missing Bennedict Mathurin (thumb), a meaningful scoring loss at 17.8 points per game. The Pacers have been poor either way, but the splits still point to a drop-off: Indiana is 5-19 with Mathurin (20.8%) and 4-13 without him (23.5%) this season, with net rating moving from -6.8 with him to -9.1 without. With Mathurin out again, the Pacers are leaning even more heavily on Pascal Siakam (23.6 points per game) as the primary engine in the projected starting group.

New Orleans is without Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado. Jones is the bigger two-way absence, and the Pelicans’ season profile dips without him: New Orleans is 7-16 with Jones (30.4%) versus 3-17 without him (15.0%). That is a notable win-rate gap for a team already sitting at 10-33 overall.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Cleveland’s backcourt is shorthanded with Darius Garland and Sam Merrill (hand) both out. Merrill’s absence is especially notable, and the team split is stark: the Cavaliers are 16-8 with Merrill (66.7%) versus 7-11 without him (38.9%) this season. Garland’s split is less intuitive, but still important for pricing: Cleveland is 13-13 with Garland (50.0%) and 10-6 without him (62.5%). Even if the win rate has held without Garland, losing both guards at once can compress creation responsibilities onto Donovan Mitchell (29.7 points per game, 5.6 assists per game).

Philadelphia has Joel Embiid and Paul George both listed as probable. If both play, the market should treat this closer to a normal 76ers baseline. Embiid’s season splits are essentially neutral: Philadelphia is 12-9 with him (57.1%) and 10-7 without (58.8%). George’s splits are also close: 13-9 with him (59.1%) versus 9-7 without (56.2%). The key here is less about season-long win rate and more about late news risk, since two high-minute starters are carrying tags.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors

This is the slate’s most significant injury cluster. The Clippers have Kawhi Leonard (ankle), Ivica Zubac, and John Collins (groin) all questionable, with Bogdan Bogdanovic already out. Leonard is the swing piece: Los Angeles is 15-14 with him (51.7%) versus 2-8 without him (20.0%) this season. Zubac also shows an extreme split: the Clippers are 11-22 with him (33.3%) and 6-0 without him (100.0%). That record is what it is, but it is still a number bettors will see and react to if he is ruled out.

Toronto is already missing RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl (back), and Immanuel Quickley (back) is questionable. Barrett’s absence has been costly in the results: the Raptors are 16-7 with him (69.6%) versus 9-10 without him (47.4%). Poeltl’s split is more minor but still relevant: Toronto is 13-8 with him (61.9%) and 12-9 without (57.1%). If Quickley sits, Toronto loses a 16.5 points and 6.1 assists per game starter, and the Raptors’ win rate dips from 60.0% with him to 50.0% without him.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets

Anthony Edwards (foot) is out, and that is the cleanest star absence on the slate. Minnesota has still won at a high rate without him (6-3, 66.7%) compared to with him (21-11, 65.6%) this season, but Edwards’s 28.9 points per game and 32.0% usage rate are not easily replaced on a possession-by-possession basis. With him sidelined, more of the offense is likely to flow through Julius Randle (22.2 points per game, 5.7 assists per game) in the projected starting lineup.

Houston is without Tari Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith is listed day-to-day. Eason’s absence is not supported by a negative team split, but it still matters for rotation quality: the Rockets are 13-8 with him (61.9%) and 10-7 without him (58.8%). Finney-Smith’s split is also modest (55.6% with, 62.1% without), so the bigger betting story in this game is Edwards’s removal from Minnesota’s scoring profile.

Washington Wizards @ Sacramento Kings

Sacramento is without Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray. Sabonis is the key absence, having played only 11 games this season but nearing a return and potentially available as soon as Friday. The Kings have been significantly worse without him: Sacramento is 2-9 with Sabonis (18.2%) and 9-21 without him (30.0%) this season, with net rating moving from -11.8 with him to -10.0 without. Even if the net rating is slightly better without, the win rate and the loss of 17.2 points and 12.3 rebounds per game are significant.

Washington is missing Khris Middleton, Bilal Coulibaly, and Cam Whitmore. Middleton is the most impactful absence, and the Wizards’ results crater without him: Washington is 9-18 with Middleton (33.3%) versus 1-11 without him (8.3%). In a matchup between two struggling teams, that kind of availability swing can matter more than usual for side and total pricing.

Statistical Impact Analysis

The most dramatic season-long win-rate splits belong to Kawhi Leonard (ankle) for the Clippers (51.7% with, 20.0% without) and Khris Middleton for the Wizards (33.3% with, 8.3% without). Cleveland also shows a significant drop without Sam Merrill (hand), sliding from 66.7% with him to 38.9% without him.

Toronto’s profile is also worth tracking: the Raptors are 69.6% with RJ Barrett versus 47.4% without him, and they could also be without Immanuel Quickley (back), who carries a more minor but still meaningful split (60.0% with, 50.0% without).

Betting And Fantasy Implications

Bettors should treat Clippers-Raptors as a late-news game where the market can move quickly based on Leonard (ankle), Zubac, Collins (groin), and Quickley (back). Minnesota-Houston is the other clear injury-driven spot, with Edwards (foot) out and his usage likely redistributed, which could create prop value if books are slow to adjust to the new roles. In Cleveland-Philadelphia, the Cavaliers’ missing guards can focus the offense on Donovan Mitchell.

Players To Monitor

Kevin Huerter, Chicago Bulls
Julian Phillips, Chicago Bulls
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
John Collins, Los Angeles Clippers
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
Sandro Mamukelashvili, Toronto Raptors
Garrett Temple, Toronto Raptors

The Betting Edge

The slate’s clearest leverage points are the Clippers’ cluster of questionable starters and Minnesota adjusting without Anthony Edwards (foot). Keep an eye on Toronto’s backcourt news as well, since Immanuel Quickley (back) sits on top of an already thinned Raptors rotation without RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl (back).

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 16.