Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The loudest signal on Kalshi heading into January 19 was not a title future or an awards race; it was trade uncertainty. The market for Chris Paul to be traded by February 6 ripped higher, and it did it with a massive spread that screams low-conviction pricing even as traders chase the move.
The other clean storyline is a split-screen between team outlooks: Phoenix and Miami saw meaningful lifts in playoff qualification pricing. In contrast, Los Angeles’ playoff qualification odds slid amid heavy volume. On the awards board, Anthony Edwards posted the most significant percentage jump of the day in Clutch Player of the Year, but the order book still looks thin enough to keep volatility in play.
Dunk on the Prediction Markets with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.
Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered
Chris Paul Traded By February 6: Up 59 cents to 37c on the day (from 38c open to 97c close), a 155.26% jump. The market is still vast at 37c bid and 91c ask, which is a red flag for price discovery rather than a clean consensus.
San Antonio To Be The West One Seed: Up 14 cents to 6c (from 4c open to 18c close), a 350.0% move. Even after the spike, the market is still priced as a long shot, and the 6c bid to 15c ask spread shows how jumpy this contract remains.
Anthony Edwards For Clutch Player Of The Year: Up 28 cents to 34c (from 13c open to 41c close), a 215.38% surge. The market is not tight (34c bid, 43c ask), so the move looks more like a repricing wave than a fully settled number.
Ja Morant Next Team (Stays With Memphis Or Retires): Up 28 cents to 41c (from 31c open to 69c close), a 122.58% jump. That move sits next to a sharp drop in the related “Ja Morant traded" market (down 22 cents to 41c from 69c open to 47c close), which is a notable divergence in how traders are expressing the same underlying uncertainty.
Dallas Playoff Qualification Odds: Down 3 cents to 3c (from 6c open to 3c close), a -50.0% move. The absolute price is tiny, but the percentage swing is large, and the market is still tradable (3c bid, 5c ask), which can keep it volatile.
Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights
Oklahoma City Title Markets Stayed The Liquidity Center: Oklahoma City’s championship odds traded 8,547 contracts in the last twenty-four hours (42c bid, 44c ask). Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title odds also stayed active, with 1,740 contracts traded over the previous twenty-four hours (51c bid, 53c ask) and very deep bids at 51c.
Los Angeles Playoff Qualification Was The Biggest Team-Volume Print: Los Angeles’ playoff qualification odds traded 870 contracts in the last twenty-four hours and slipped from 79c open to 74c close (-6.33%). The order book is not deep on the yes side (77c bid with only 18 contracts shown at that level), which can exaggerate downside moves.
Boston Eastern Conference Title Had Real Two-Way Flow: Boston’s Eastern Conference title odds traded 37,431 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, moving from 20c open to 21c close (+5.0%). The book shows size on both sides, including 20c yes depth and 79c heavy no depth.
Trade Markets Showed The Widest Spreads: Beyond Chris Paul, Nic Claxton’s “traded by February 6" market closed at 54c after opening at 94c (-42.55%), and it is still wide at 47c bid and 76c ask. These are not efficient markets right now; they are headline-sensitive and liquidity-dependent.
Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching
Phoenix Playoff Qualification Odds: Phoenix moved from 69c open to 78c close (+13.04%) and is now priced at 76c bid and 78c ask. With a total volume of 79,467, it is one of the more liquid playoff-qualification contracts, making the move more meaningful than a thin-market spike.
Memphis Playoff Qualification Odds: Memphis dropped from 10c open to 7c close (-30.0%) and sits at 8c bid, 13c ask. That spread is wide enough that any follow-through could be choppy.
Defensive Player Of The Year Tension At The Top: Chet Holmgren is down to 52c bid after a 52c open and 49c close (-5.77%), while Victor Wembanyama is at 21c bid after a 20c open and 21c close (+5.0%). The market is still pricing a clear favorite, but the day’s drift suggests traders are not done probing the gap.
Kalshi Market Edge
- Trade markets are the volatility engine right now – the most significant moves (Chris Paul, Nic Claxton, Ja Morant) are also the widest spreads, so execution matters as much as direction.
- Phoenix and Miami playoff qualification pricing both lifted meaningfully (Phoenix +9 cents on the day, Miami +7 cents), while Los Angeles moved the other way on heavy twenty-four-hour volume.
- Watch whether the “Ja Morant traded" market keeps bleeding after the -22 cent day, or whether it snaps back given the still-active volume (4,118 contracts in the last twenty-four hours).
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 19.
