Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

NBA markets had one clear theme on January 22. Traders aggressively repriced the middle class. That showed up in playoff qualification, awards, and the trade board.

The loudest signal was in the playoff markets. Golden State and Portland both took sharp hits. Milwaukee and Charlotte moved the other way, but for very different reasons.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

• Golden State’s playoff qualification cratered from 79c to 54c (down 29.11%). The market is now pricing it as a true coin flip, with 54c bid and 57c ask.
• Portland’s playoff qualification fell from 40c to 31c (down 30.0%). That is a major reset for a fringe team market, and it comes with a 31c bid and 35c ask.
• Milwaukee’s playoff qualification jumped from 21c to 20c bid with a 26c ask, but the bigger story is the candle. It closed 31c after opening 21c (up 47.62%). That is a violent repricing for a playoff yes.
• Charlotte’s playoff qualification surged from a 10c bid to an 11c bid, and the candle closed 18c after opening 10c (up 80.0%). The market is still skeptical, but the direction was clear.
• Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds collapsed from 10c to 5c bid (down 40.0%). That is one of the sharpest award moves on the board.
• Keyonte George’s Most Improved Player odds ripped from 10c to 18c bid, with the candle closing 23c after opening 10c (up 130.0%). That is a major narrative shift inside a crowded market.
• Chet Holmgren’s Defensive Player of the Year odds slid from 53c to 46c bid (down 9.43%). The market is still near the top, but the momentum flipped.
• Victor Wembanyama’s Defensive Player of the Year odds climbed from 22c to 26c bid (up 18.18%). The move came with heavy activity, which matters more than a small price bump.
• Pascal Siakam’s All-Star selection odds dropped from 71c to 40c bid (down 30.99%). That is a dramatic repricing ahead of the February 1 reserves reveal.
• James Harden’s All-Star selection odds fell from 62c to 21c bid (down 56.45%). The market moved from likely to a long shot in one day.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

• San Antonio’s championship odds led the entire slate in 34,081 contracts of 24-hour trading volume. Open interest also sat at 2,127,612, which signals deep two-way positioning.
• Detroit’s championship odds posted 35,734 contracts in 24-hour trading volume. Open interest was 749,884, keeping it among the most actively held futures.
• Oklahoma City’s championship odds traded 10,660 contracts in the last 24 hours on massive open interest of 798,886. The order book was also thick on both sides.
• Victor Wembanyama, as Defensive Player of the Year, saw 18,678 contracts in 24-hour trading volume. Open interest was 838,726, which is elite for an awards market.
• Detroit’s Eastern Conference title odds traded 10,477 contracts in the last 24 hours. That is standout volume for a conference market priced in the low twenties.
• Wide-spread warning sign: Kyle Kuzma’s trade odds showed a 30-cent spread (52c bid, 82c ask). That is pure uncertainty and thin liquidity.
• Another wide spread: Michael Porter Jr.’s trade odds had a 39-cent spread (32c bid, 71c ask). The market is not agreeing on fair value.
• Tight and efficient: Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title odds were 51c bid, and 52c ask with huge depth. That is a clean, liquid market.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

• Oklahoma City’s title stack: Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title odds at 51c sit above its championship odds at 44c. That gap is the market’s Finals conversion tax.
• Detroit’s top-seed vs title pricing: Detroit’s Eastern Conference one seed odds at 68c sit far above its Eastern Conference title odds at 23c. That is a big implied playoff volatility gap.
• Rookie of the Year race: Kon Knueppel is priced at 13c bid after a 19c to 17c close move (down 10.53%). Cooper Flagg remains the favorite at 78c bid.
• Trade board headline: Anthony Davis’s trade odds fell from 36c to 29c bid (down 44.44%). The market also prices Davis staying with Dallas or retiring at 65c bid.
• Golden State’s two-board stress: Golden State’s playoff qualification odds at 54c are now a true sweat. Jonathan Kuminga’s trade odds also dropped from 80c to 58c bid (down 26.25%).

Kalshi Market Edge

• The biggest playoff reprices hit the middle. Golden State and Portland took the hardest resets.
• Awards markets are moving fast. Jokic as MVP and George as Most Improved Player were the clearest momentum signals.
• All-Star markets are showing real volatility. Siakam and Harden both saw significant one-day drops.
• Watch wide spreads on trade markets. Kuzma and Porter are pricing based on disagreement, not certainty.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 22.