Daily Prediction Markets Wrapped for Saturday Jan. 3, 2026

Kalshi’s NBA board saw a clear theme on Jan. 3: sharp repricing in awards and “to make the playoffs" markets, with several double-digit percentage swings that stood out even against typically volatile long-horizon contracts. The most significant single move came in Most Improved Player, where one candidate’s price collapsed, while Defensive Player of the Year saw a significant rotation at the top.

On the futures side, the most notable action was not at the very top of the title market, but in the playoff-qualification layer where a few mid-tier teams took meaningful hits and where spreads widened, signaling uncertainty and potential for continued volatility.

Top movers that set the tone

Keyonte George, Most Improved Player: down 14c to 11c (from a 24c open to a 10c close, -58.33%). This is the day’s most extreme repricing in the dataset, and it came with real participation, 2,462 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The current 11c bid to 16c ask spread is still wide enough to suggest the market is not entirely settled after the drop.
Victor Wembanyama, Defensive Player of the Year: down 6c to 17c (24c open to 18c close, -25.0%) on heavy interest, 8,402 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market is effectively forcing a reallocation away from the preseason-style favorite pricing.
Chet Holmgren, Defensive Player of the Year: up sharply to 61c (48c open to 65c close, +35.42%). Even with a smaller 24-hour print (642 contracts), the move is large enough to matter, and the contract now sits with a tight 61c to 62c market, implying higher conviction at the new level.
Dallas, to make the playoffs: down 5c to 7c (12c open to 7c close, -41.67%). That is a major reset for a playoff-qualification contract, and it happened despite only five contracts traded in the last 24 hours, a classic illiquidity-driven air pocket risk.
Portland, to make the playoffs: down 4c to 13c (24c open to 20c close, -16.67%). The contract is now priced like a long shot, and the order book shows meaningful interest sitting below the market with 4,800 contracts bid at 11c, which can act as a near-term “floor" if sellers keep pressing.

Volume and order book highlights

Oklahoma City’s championship odds remained the liquidity center of the futures board with 1,170,212 total contracts traded and 13,794 traded in the last 24 hours. Price action was modest, down from a 44c open to a 43c close (-2.27%), but the depth is notable with roughly 50,000 contracts bid at 44c and 45c, and similarly large size on the “no" side in the low-50s. This is a highly efficient market relative to most others.
Houston’s championship odds posted one of the largest 24-hour volume prints anywhere, with 27,734 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, yet the price held steady at 6c to 7c. That combination, heavy volume with little movement, often signals two-sided flow and a market that is comfortable with its current probability.
Golden State to make the playoffs was the day’s playoff-qualification volume leader at 9,178 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, but pricing is still relatively wide at 76c bid to 84c ask. That spread suggests the market is active but not tight, leaving room for sharp moves if new information hits.
All-Star selection markets showed extreme “gap risk" pricing in a few names. Nikola Jokic’s All-Star contract is quoted at 54c bid to 98c ask, a vast spread for a binary selection question, and a sign of thin, dislocated liquidity rather than a genuine 44-point uncertainty band.

Notable storylines worth watching

Defensive Player of the Year is rotating hard at the top. The market is no longer treating Defensive Player of the Year as a Wembanyama runaway. Holmgren’s contract is now priced in the low 60s, while Wembanyama has been repriced down into the teens. With both contracts showing meaningful 24-hour volume, this looks less like a single print and more like a fundamental regime change in how traders are weighing the race.
Playoff-qualification longshots are where the volatility is. Dallas and Portland both saw large percentage drops, and Atlanta also slid meaningfully, down from a 61c open to a 56c close (-8.2%), and is now quoted at 57c bid to 64c ask. These are the types of markets where wide spreads and thinner depth can amplify any incremental news into multi-cent moves.
The title market remains top-heavy, but the “best record" market is reinforcing the favorite Oklahoma City’s “best regular season record" contract moved up from 84c open to 87c close (+3.57%) and is now 88c bid to 90c ask, aligning with the broader theme that the market still views Oklahoma City as the league’s regular-season anchor even as championship pricing stays relatively stable.

Closing takeaways

The day’s cleanest “story move" was the Defensive Player of the Year reshuffle, with Holmgren surging and Wembanyama selling off on heavy volume.
The most fragile pricing is in playoff-qualification longshots, where low 24-hour volume and wide spreads are producing outsized percentage swings.
For pure liquidity and price discovery, Oklahoma City’s championship market continues to dominate, while Houston’s title market is seeing heavy two-sided flow without repricing.

What to monitor next: whether the DPOY gap between Holmgren and the field holds with continued volume, and whether the depressed playoff-qualification names (especially Dallas) see follow-through selling or a bounce as liquidity refills.