NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Friday, January 23
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
We went 1-1 yesterday, winning our Blazers bet but losing the Magic one. Our monthly record is now 26-17 (60.5%), and we’re staying locked in.
Eight NBA games on the board for January 23, and the slate has a particular personality. We’ve got two back-end back-to-backs (Houston and Denver), one home back-to-back (Portland), and a couple of monster numbers (Oklahoma City laying -16.0). I’ve gone through every matchup, and I’m not forcing action where the data is muddy. I’m hunting for spots where the schedule, the market, and the recent against-the-spread profile all point in the same direction.
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Detroit Pistons -3.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets Tonight?
- Arena: Little Caesars Arena
- Location: Detroit, MI
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 23, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Pistons vs. Rockets Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Houston Rockets | +3.5 (-110) | +139 | 41.8% | 39% |
| Detroit Pistons | -3.5 (-111) | -165 | 62.3% | 60% |
Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:06 AM ET
This is the cleanest schedule-and-form stack on the slate. Detroit’s last ten profile is strong: 8-2 straight up with a 6-4 against the spread mark. Houston’s is the opposite: 2-8 against the spread over their last ten games. Now layer in the spot. Houston is on the back end of a back-to-back, on zero days’ rest, and it’s also their third game in four days. In the back end of back-to-backs, Houston is 8-13 with a 38.1% win rate since the 2025 season. Detroit isn’t just catching them tired. Detroit is catching them tired, while Houston is also missing Steven Adams (out). I’m not overcomplicating it. Detroit -3.5 is a bet on the better recent team, in the better rest spot, against a team that’s been bleeding covers.
Portland Trail Blazers +3.0 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors Tonight?
- Arena: Moda Center
- Location: Portland, OR
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 23, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Toronto Raptors | -3.0 (-110) | -146 | 59.3% | 56% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +3.0 (-110) | +121 | 45.2% | 42% |
Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:06 AM ET
I get why the market wants Toronto. The Raptors are 6-4 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in their last ten. But Portland has been a covering machine: 8-2 against the spread in their previous ten. That’s the first reason I’m grabbing the points. The second is that this number is asking Toronto to win by margin in a fatigue spot of their own. Toronto is in Game 4 of 5 on this road trip, and they’re also in a three-game-in-four-days window. In those high-frequency spots, Toronto is 14-21 (40.0%) with an average margin of -3.51. Portland is on zero days’ rest on the back end of a back-to-back, but that’s not an auto-fade here because Portland’s historical back-end profile is actually favorable: 13-8 (61.9%) with a +3.24 average margin in those games since the 2025 season. Add in the injury uncertainty on Toronto’s side with RJ Barrett (ankle) questionable and Collin Murray-Boyles (thumb) questionable, and I’m taking the team that’s been cashing tickets at an 80% cover rate over the last ten.
The Betting Edge
- 3 units: Detroit Pistons -3.5
- 2 units: Portland Trail Blazers +3.0
I’m not here to bet on every game. I’m here to bet the best games. Detroit is the rest-and-form hammer. Portland is the points-and-trends play with the schedule math on our side. Ride with me or fade me. Just don’t sit in the middle and complain when the window closes.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 23.
