NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Wednesday, January 21
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Seven NBA games on the board tonight, and I’m looking to bounce back. We went 0-2 yesterday, which stings, but we’re still 23-16 on the month (59%), and the process is sound. I’ve gone through every matchup, and the slate has a clear theme: big spreads and tired legs. Sacramento and Toronto are both on the back end of a back-to-back, Brooklyn is in a three-games-in-four-days squeeze, and Charlotte is sitting in that sneaky front end of a back-to-back spot that’s been a problem for them historically.
I’m pressing the spots where the schedule and the market line up clean.
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New York Knicks -11.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets Tonight?
- Arena: Madison Square Garden
- Location: New York, NY
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 21, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Knicks vs. Nets Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Brooklyn Nets | +11.5 (-110) | +442 | 18.5% | 17% |
| New York Knicks | -11.5 (-111) | -601 | 85.7% | 82% |
Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:27 AM ET
I’m laying it with New York, and I’m not apologizing for the number. The Knicks have absolutely owned this matchup. In the last ten head-to-head meetings, New York is 10-0 straight up with seven covers in those ten games. That’s dominance, not noise. Now add the schedule angle. Brooklyn is in a high-frequency spot (three games in the last four days), and the data shows they’ve struggled there: a 44.12% win rate across 34 qualifying games with an average margin of -4.65. That’s the fatigue tax showing up. Yes, the Knicks’ recent form is ugly (2-8 straight up and 2-8 against the spread), but this is exactly the get-right opponent where I’m willing to bet on the ceiling. The market agrees: Kalshi has New York at 82%, basically in line with the moneyline’s 85.7% implied probability. I’m betting the spot where the Knicks’ historical dominance meets Brooklyn’s schedule fatigue.
Cleveland Cavaliers -3.0 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Charlotte Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Tonight?
- Arena: Spectrum Center
- Location: Charlotte, NC
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: January 21, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Hornets vs. Cavaliers Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | -3.0 (-110) | -149 | 59.8% | |
| Charlotte Hornets | +3.0 (-110) | +124 | 44.6% |
Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:27 AM ET
This is a pure situational bet, and I’m comfortable living with it. Charlotte is on the front end of a back-to-back, and their historical performance in that exact spot is brutal: four wins in 24 front-end back-to-back games (16.67%) with an average margin of -7.83. That’s not a small sample. That’s a profile. Now add the travel. Charlotte is coming in after traveling 1,357.0 miles in this one. Cleveland is also on the road, but the schedule data doesn’t flag anything close to that kind of travel burden. Yes, Cleveland’s injury list is real – Darius Garland (out), Max Strus (out), and Sam Merrill (out) – and I’m not pretending that’s nothing. But the number also shows the market has already adjusted. We’re not laying seven or eight. We’re laying three. And I’ll take the side that’s 6-4 straight up in its last ten against a team walking into a historically bad scheduling bucket.
The Betting Edge
- 3 units: New York Knicks -11.5
- 3 units: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.0
Two bets. Two spots where the schedule and the matchup history do the heavy lifting. Ride with me or fade me. Either way, don’t sit on your hands tonight.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 21.
