NBA Daily Best Bets Against the Spread – January 2, 2026
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Ten games tonight, and the board is loaded with situational landmines: we’ve got at least one proper back-end back-to-back (Brooklyn), multiple front-end back-to-backs (San Antonio, New York, Atlanta), and a couple of spreads that are so fat they dare you to lay it (Cleveland -13.5, Phoenix -12.5). That’s precisely where the market loves to tax you, and where I’m looking to either grab the cleanest mismatch or take the points when the number gets silly.
I ran through every matchup in the data, and two ATS spots stand out from the pack because the trends + schedule context + price all point in the same direction. Let’s get paid.
Tier 1 (3 Units) – The Lock
Where to Watch San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
- Stadium: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 1, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana PacersBetting Odds
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -6.0 (-110) | Indiana Pacers +6.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -241 | Indiana Pacers +197
Spurs -6.0 (3 units)
I’m laying it with San Antonio because the recent form gap is a canyon, and Indiana hasn’t shown they can be trusted in this range. The Spurs are 8-2 in their last 10 with a 6-3 ATS mark, while the Pacers are a brutal 0-10 in their previous 10 and just 3-6 ATS in that span. That’s not “bad luck," that’s a team living on the wrong end of games. And the schedule spot doesn’t bail Indy out: both teams are on one day’s rest (last played December 31), but San Antonio is on the front end of a back-to-back. Historically, that’s basically coin-flip territory (45.0% win rate, -0.6 avg margin in 20 front-end back-to-back games), meaning they typically play competitive basketball in this exact scheduling bucket. Add in the travel note (Spurs traveled 997.2 miles into Indy), and you might think “trap." However, the market already priced that in…and still hung a number that’s basically saying Indiana is within a couple possessions of a team that’s been cashing tickets and winning games. I’m not buying it. If this is Spurs -6, it’s because the books are daring you to take the “home dog that can’t win." I’m not taking the bait.
Tier 2 (2 Units) – Strong Add-On
Where to Watch Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
- Stadium: Capital One Arena
- Location: Washington, DC
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 1, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards Betting Odds
- Spread: Washington Wizards -3.5 (-111) | Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington Wizards -167 | Brooklyn Nets +140
Wizards -3.5 (2 units)
This is a schedule-and-performance fade of Brooklyn, and I’m comfortable pressing it because the back-to-back data is ugly. The Nets are on zero days’ rest (played January 1) and traveling (even if it’s only 203.3 miles), and their historical profile on the back end of back-to-backs is a red flag: 6-14 in those spots with an average margin of -12.1, scoring 103.05 ppg while allowing 115.15 ppg. That’s not a slight dip, that’s a full-on collapse profile. Washington, meanwhile, is on one day rest (played December 31) and has quietly been a covering machine lately: 6-3 ATS in their last 10 with a 66.7% cover rate. And yes, head-to-head leans Brooklyn overall (Brooklyn 7-3 in the previous 10 meetings, 6 ATS covers), but I’m not paying for history when the current situational spot screams fatigue and the Wizards are the team actually cashing numbers. At -3.5, I’m betting Washington’s rest edge and Brooklyn’s back-to-back cliff shows up in the second half – the exact place these back-end back-to-back teams tend to die.
Recap
Spurs -6.0 (3 units)
Wizards -3.5 (2 units)
Two plays, two different angles, same goal: get the best of the number and let the schedule do some of the work for us. Ride with me or fade me; either way, I’ll be back tomorrow with receipts.
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