NBA Daily Prediction Markets Wrapped – January 2, 2026
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Milwaukee was the clear headline mover in Kalshi’s NBA markets today, and it was not subtle. The Bucks’ playoff qualification price collapsed from 35c at the open to 25c at the close, a 10c drop that translates to a -28.57% move on the day. With 24-hour trading volume of 2,085 contracts and open interest of 57,735, this was not a random print in an empty book; it was a meaningful repricing.
The other major storyline was a sharp divergence between Oklahoma City’s “regular season dominance" markets and its title markets. Oklahoma City’s best regular-season record odds ticked up (84c open to 85c close), while its championship odds slipped (45c open to 43c close). Traders are increasingly pricing in elite regular-season outcomes without paying the same premium for the postseason finish.
Top movers that mattered
Milwaukee’s playoff qualification odds
Down 10c to 28c bid (35c open to 25c close, -28.57%). The market is also wide at 28c-30c, suggesting uncertainty remains even after the selloff.
Mitch Johnson for Coach of the Year
Down 15c to 23c bid (27c open to 12c close, -55.56%). Despite 1,410 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, the orderbook is lopsided, with notable size at 23c on the bid, suggesting buyers are trying to stabilize the new level.
Mike Brown for Coach of the Year
Down 12c to 4c bid (15c open to 3c close, -80.0%). This is one of the most extreme percentage moves on the board, and the 4c-10c spread signals a market that is still searching for fair value.
Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year
Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year is down sharply from 36c open to 23c close (-36.11%), now 14c bid and 19c ask. Even with heavy total volume (606,683 contracts) and 13,276 traded in the last 24 hours, the market is pricing a much lower probability than it did at the open.
Chet Holmgren for Defensive Player of the Year
Chet Holmgren for Defensive Player of the Year is the counterweight to the Wembanyama move, up from 42c open to 62c close (+47.62%), now 61c bid and 65c ask. This is a significant rotation at the top of the DPOY board.
Volume and orderbook highlights
Championship market liquidity remains concentrated at the top
Oklahoma City’s championship odds traded 5,287 contracts over the last 24 hours and currently have massive open interest (754,887). The current 43c-45c spread is tight for a futures market at this scale, indicating efficient two-way action even as the price drifted lower.
San Antonio’s championship market is still the volume king
There have been 14,037 contracts traded in the last 24 hours with 2,007,768 open interest. Price moved from 11c open to 9c close (-18.18%), a meaningful dip given the size of the market.
New York’s championship odds saw a notable demand spike
There have been 42,714 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, with the price up from 8c open to 10c close (+25.0%). That is one of the most significant 24-hour volumes across all NBA futures shown, and it coincided with a drop in New York’s Eastern Conference title odds (31c open to 27c close, -12.9%), a split worth monitoring.
Trade markets are active and moving
Anthony Davis to be traded by February 6 is up from 47c open to 58c close (+23.4%) with 3,382 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Trae Young to be traded is also higher (57c open to 61c close, +7.02%) on 1,061 contracts in the last 24 hours.
Notable markets worth watching
Milwaukee’s ecosystem is dislocated
The playoff qualification drop to a 28c bid is the day’s most significant team-level move in the data. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s Eastern Conference title odds are sitting at just 2c-3c. The market is effectively saying, “making the playoffs is in real doubt, and the conference path is nearly dead." If Milwaukee’s playoff price continues to trade with size, it will likely pull related markets with it.
Oklahoma City’s “best record" vs “title" split
Best record is 82c-87c with substantial 24-hour volume (1,007), while the championship price is 43c-45c and drifting. Traders are paying for regular-season outcomes but demanding a discount on the final step.
League leader whiplash in assists and rebounds
Nikola Jokic to lead the league in assists per game jumped from 29c open to 45c close (+55.17%) on 2,000 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. Jokic to lead rebounds per game also surged (15c open to 23c close, +53.33%) on 3,120 contracts in the previous 24 hours. Those are two of the strongest “stat leader" momentum signals on the board today.
Closing takeaways
- Milwaukee’s playoff qualification selloff was the day’s defining move, and the volume and open interest confirm it was a real repricing.
- Defensive Player of the Year flipped hard toward Chet Holmgren, while Victor Wembanyama’s price was marked down aggressively despite heavy trading.
- Oklahoma City is being priced as a regular-season juggernaut more than a postseason lock, a split that could keep widening if the championship market continues to leak.
For tomorrow, the key tells are whether Milwaukee’s playoff market finds support near the high-20s, and whether the DPOY rotation continues or snaps back as liquidity refills around the new Holmgren-Wembanyama gap.
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