NBA Kalshi Update Jan 20: Hawks Playoff Odds Crash & Michael Porter Jr. Trade Surge

Atlanta’s playoff qualification market was the loudest signal on the board. It was not subtle. The contract closed at 43c after opening at 65c, a sharp repricing into the coin-flip range.

The other headline was the trade complex. Several of the most liquid “will he be traded" contracts saw meaningful downside, even as volume stayed elevated.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

Atlanta Playoff Qualification: crashed from 65c to 43c (down 33.85%). The market is now pricing Atlanta closer to a true bubble outcome.
Toronto Playoff Qualification: fell from 79c to 65c (down 17.72%). That is a meaningful reset for a contract still priced above sixty cents.
Portland Playoff Qualification: jumped from 20c to 40c (up 100%). The current market is still wide, with 23c bid and 33c ask.
Dallas Playoff Qualification: moved from 3c to 6c (up 100%). It is still a long shot price, but the day-over-day move was large.
Oklahoma City Western Conference title odds: rose from 51c to 55c (up 7.84%). That move came with heavy liquidity and depth.
Denver Western Conference title odds: dropped from 19c to 16c (down 15.79%). Denver’s championship odds also slid, from 13c to 11c (down 15.38%).
Nikola Jokic MVP odds: fell from 14c to 11c (down 21.43%). That is a notable hit in a high-volume awards market.
Cade Cunningham Clutch Player of the Year odds: fell from 25c to 14c (down 44%). The contract also shows a very wide market, at 10c bid and 23c ask.
LeBron James All-Star selection: rose from 71c to 88c (up 23.94%). This coincides with news that Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead 2026 All-Star starters.
Jonathan Kuminga trade (by February 6): fell from 94c to 81c (down 13.83%). The contract still implies a high probability, but the market backed off.
Anthony Davis trade (by February 6): dropped from 43c to 32c (down 25.58%). The market is now closer to one-in-three.
Giannis Antetokounmpo trade (by February 6): fell from 21c to 16c (down 23.81%). That is a meaningful fade with large volume.
Domantas Sabonis trade (by February 6): fell from 32c to 25c (down 21.88%). Another clear de-risking move in the trade bucket.
Michael Porter Jr. trade (by February 6): surged from 24c to 74c (up 208.33%). This is one of the biggest single-contract repricings on the slate.

Kalshi Volume and Order Book Highlights

San Antonio championship odds led the futures board in activity with 25,915 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
Oklahoma City championship odds also stayed extremely active with 18,838 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
Boston championship odds posted 33,166 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, one of the day’s biggest futures volumes.
Oklahoma City Western Conference title odds traded 2,210 contracts in the last twenty-four hours and showed two-sided books.
Golden State playoff qualification saw 1,516 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, with a relatively wide 61c bid and 67c ask.
Deni Avdija Most Improved Player saw 7,850 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, with a 62c bid and 66c ask.
Nikola Jokic MVP stayed liquid despite the drop, with 6,891 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next-team market was one of the busiest event boards, with 23,883 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Michael Porter Jr.’s trade market has seen strong participation, with 284 contracts traded over the last 24 hours following the major repricing.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

Oklahoma City’s title stack: Oklahoma City is 55c to win the West but 44c to win the Finals. That gap is a key relationship to monitor.
Atlanta playoff qualification: The contract is now 47c bid and 50c ask after the collapse. Any follow-through could be fast.
Toronto playoff qualification: The contract closed at 65c after opening at 79c. It also has notable “no" depth at 26c for 11,125.
All-Star selection volatility: Jalen Johnson moved from 99c to 79c (down 20.2%), and Michael Porter Jr. moved from 53c to 42c (down 20.75%). Both markets also show wide spreads.
Trade deadline cross-currents: Several trade contracts sold off hard, but the Michael Porter Jr. trade moved the other way. That divergence is the story.

Kalshi Market Edge

The biggest playoff signal was Atlanta. The market repriced from a clear “yes" to a near coin flip.
The trade board is not moving in one direction. Most names faded, but one contract repriced violently higher.
Oklahoma City remains the liquidity center of the futures board. Championship and West markets both show heavy volume and deep books.
Awards markets stayed active even through sharp moves. Jokic for MVP and Avdija for Most Improved both traded heavily.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 20.