NBA Prediction Markets Movement & Wrap for Tuesday
Sportsgrid Staff
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Kalshi’s NBA board saw a sharp repricing in the playoff qualification layer, led by a collapse in Dallas and a broad reset in a few fringe contenders. The day’s most significant moves were not subtle: Dallas’ playoff qualification odds were effectively cut in half, while Phoenix and the Los Angeles Lakers moved the other direction with notable strength.
Top movers that set the tone
Dallas playoff qualification odds: down 9c to 6c (from 15c open to 6c close, -60.0%). This was the most extreme repricing on the board, accompanied by heavy activity: 11,730 contracts traded over the last 24 hours. The order book is also lopsided, with meaningful bids stacked below (4c-6c), suggesting traders are still willing to buy dips but only at distressed levels.
Phoenix playoff qualification odds: up 9c to 71c (from 62c open to 75c close, +20.97%). Even with a relatively tight 71c-73c market, the move was decisive. Phoenix also printed a 75 last price despite a 71c bid, a sign that buyers have been willing to cross the spread.
Los Angeles Clippers playoff qualification odds: down 7c to 32c (from 39c open to 31c close, -20.51%). This was a clean, sustained fade rather than a one-tick blip, and it traded 5,987 contracts in the last 24 hours, which is meaningful for a playoff qualifier outside the top tier.
Memphis playoff qualification odds: down 6c to 16c (from 25c open to 19c close, -24.0%). The market is still relatively broad at 16c-19c, which fits a name that can gap on limited liquidity. Still, 5,405 contracts traded in the last 24 hours point to real repositioning.
San Antonio Western Conference title odds: up 5c to 12c (from 10c open to 15c close, +50.0%). This is one of the cleanest “futures ladder" moves of the day, and it came with scale: 7,578 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. San Antonio’s championship odds also strengthened (8c open to 11c close, +37.5%), keeping the conference-to-title relationship directionally consistent.
Volume and order book tells
Oklahoma City’s championship odds remain the liquidity center: 9,506 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 1,194,471 total volume, with a tight 43c-44c market. The order book shows real depth on both sides, including 50,085 contracts bid at 43c. Despite that, the contract drifted from 45c open to 44c close (-2.22%), a slight but notable softening given the size.
Boston’s Eastern Conference title odds saw a volume-backed lift: up from 17c open to 19c close (+11.76%) with 31,155 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market is tight at 20c-21c, but the order book is not, with heavy size sitting on the “no" side at 79c. That combination often signals two-way institutional flow rather than retail chasing.
The Sixth Man of the Year market printed a significant dislocation: Jaime Jaquez Jr. moved from 17c open to 62c close (+264.71%) with 5,609 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The current market is still wide at 24c-28c on the bid-ask, which is a red flag for price discovery. The close suggests a spike trade or a temporary sweep rather than a fully settled consensus.
News-driven event markets: trade odds took over
Trae Young trade odds: up from 58c open to 88c close (+51.72%) with 20,830 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. That is one of the strongest “information signal" prints on the entire slate, especially with the market now sitting at 87c-89c.
CJ McCollum trade odds: up from 17c open to 79c close (+364.71%) with 16,188 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market is now 73c-77c, and the size traded suggests this was not a small-liquidity squeeze.
Anthony Davis trade odds: down from 54c open to 48c close (-11.11%) with 6,345 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. This is a meaningful counter-move relative to the other trade markets that surged, and it is paired with a relatively tight 46c-48c market that implies more balanced two-way conviction.
Notable markets worth watching next
Detroit’s Eastern Conference title odds: down from 21c open to 20c close (-4.76%) despite massive activity, 14,048 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. High volume with only a 1c net move often signals large two-way positioning and a market that may be coiling for a bigger break.
Milwaukee playoff qualification odds: down from 29c open to 27c close (-10.34%) on 530 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The move is meaningful, but the lighter volume suggests it could be more fragile than the Dallas or Clippers repricings.
Steals leader market volatility: Dyson Daniels fell from 49c open to 39c close (-20.41%), while Tyrese Maxey collapsed from 4c open to 1c close (-75.0%). These leader markets can gap quickly on thin liquidity, and today’s prints reinforce the need for better spreads before sizing up.
Closing takeaways
Dallas’ playoff qualification contract was the day’s defining move, and the 11,730 contracts traded in the last 24 hours confirm it was a real repricing, not noise.
Trade markets delivered the clearest “information flow" signals, led by Trae Young and CJ McCollum, both with five-figure 24-hour volume.
The futures ladder mostly stayed internally consistent, with San Antonio’s conference and title odds rising together, while Oklahoma City’s championship price softened slightly despite dominant liquidity.
Tomorrow’s key watch is whether Dallas stabilizes near single digits or continues to leak, and whether the trade market strength holds without giving back on lower overnight liquidity.
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