Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Monday, January 19

Nine NBA games headline Monday’s slate, and the prop board is loaded with spots where the market is still catching up to role stability, matchup history, and recent form.

After scanning every game, the best edges come from players with strong last-five and last-ten hit rates, plus at least one extra angle that matters tonight: opponent history, home/road splits, and schedule context.

Find the Edge with SportsGrid’s Free Daily NBA Picks and Player Props.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks Matchup

Arena: State Farm Arena
Location: Atlanta, GA
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 19, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET

Kyle Kuzma Over 9.5 Points

Odds: Consensus -110 | Best Price -102 @ FanDuel

Kyle Kuzma enters tonight’s matchup with one of the cleanest “role player over" profiles on the board: he’s cleared 9.5 points in 80% of his last five, 60% of his last ten, and 71.79% on the season. The opponent history is the separator: Kuzma is a perfect 100% (9-for-9) against Atlanta on this line. He’s also been automatic away from home recently, going 100% (four for four) in his last five road games with an away streak of four, and his season scoring baseline (12.6) sits comfortably above the number. With a floor of 8.0 and a ceiling of 15.0, this line still looks a touch light at the current price.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers Matchup

Arena: Rocket Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 19, 2026
Time: 2:30 PM ET

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a volume bet worth paying for when the matchup and context align, and they do here. He’s hit 31.5 points in 60% of his last five and owns a 75% hit rate (three of four) versus Cleveland. His season average (31.8) is already above the line, and the range supports the over with a floor of 29.0 and a ceiling of 35.0. The injury context also leans more toward more on-ball creation: with Jalen Williams out, Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring rises from 31.1 (with) to 32.6 (without), and his assists tick up from 6.0 to 6.6. Both teams are on two days of rest, so there’s no schedule drag working against the minutes.

Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks Matchup

Arena: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, NY
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 19, 2026
Time: 5:00 PM ET

Max Christie Over 1.5 Assists

Odds: Consensus -171 | Best Price -156 @ DraftKings

Max Christie is the type of low line that can be attacked when the hit rates are this strong. He’s cleared 1.5 assists in 100% of his last five and 100% of his last ten, with a current five-game streak. The season average (2.2) supports it, and the distribution is stable with a floor of 1.0 and a ceiling of 3.0. Even the opponent history is solid: Christie has hit this in 50% (two of four) against New York. With both teams on two days of rest, this is a clean “minutes plus role" play where the number is too low to ignore, even at juice.

Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets Matchup

Arena: Barclays Center
Location: Brooklyn, NY
TV: NBA League Pass
Date: January 19, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET

Nic Claxton Over 11.5 Points

Nic Claxton profiles well as a steady over in a game where Brooklyn has the rest edge. He’s hit 11.5 points in 50% of his last ten and 65.79% on the season, with a season average of 12.9. The matchup history is a plus: Claxton has cleared this line in 66.67% (two of three) against Phoenix. Schedule context matters here, too-Phoenix is on a back-to-back, while Brooklyn is on two days of rest. With a floor of 10.0 and a ceiling of 16.0, the number is playable as long as the market keeps it in the low teens.