Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Sunday, January 11

Ten games headline Sunday’s NBA slate, and the prop board is loaded with role changes, opponent-specific trends, and a few numbers that still look a half-step behind current usage.

After scanning every matchup, the best edges show up where hit rates align with either opponent history (the strongest signal in this dataset) or clear context shifts from injuries. The four picks below come from four different games, with each play supported by multiple angles beyond just recent form.

Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Sunday, January 11

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Mitchell Robinson Over 0.5 Assists

New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers Matchup

• • Arena: Moda Center
  • Location: Portland, OR
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 11, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET

Odds: Consensus -225 | Best Price -210 @ BetMGM

Mitchell Robinson enters tonight’s matchup with one of the cleanest “just needs one” profiles on the board: he’s cleared 0.5 assists in 100% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 100% and a 1.1 season average. The opponent history backs it up too, as Robinson is 100% to the over in two games versus the Trail Blazers. With New York missing Josh Hart (OUT), there’s also a subtle path to more half-court touches and extra finishing possessions around the rim. At this price, we’re betting the over because the true miss rate is simply too low to justify anything close to plus money on the under.

Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds

Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder Matchup

• • Arena: Paycom Center
  • Location: Oklahoma City, OK
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 11, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET

Odds: Consensus -126 | Best Price -119 @ DraftKings

Bam Adebayo is in a strong rebounding window, hitting 8.5 boards in 80% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, while averaging 9.6 rebounds on the season. The matchup history is even better: Adebayo is 100% to this over in four games versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. The road split also supports the number, with 9.8 rebounds away compared to 9.3 at home. With Terry Rozier (OUT), Miami’s shot profile can skew a bit more toward Adebayo’s interior usage, which tends to keep him closer to the basket and in a cleaner rebounding position. At the current number, this line is still pricing Bam like a coin flip when the recent and opponent-specific data says otherwise.

Tyrese Maxey Over 27.5 Points

Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Matchup

• • Arena: Scotiabank Arena
  • Location: Toronto, ON
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 11, 2026
  • Time: 6:00 PM ET

Odds: Consensus -109 | Best Price -105 @ Fanatics

Tyrese Maxey has been a points-machine, clearing 27.5 in 80% of his last five and 70% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 75.76% and a massive 30.7 season scoring average. The road split is a key add-on for tonight in Toronto: Maxey is averaging 31.8 points away versus 29.7 at home. Toronto’s injury report also matters for the number: with Jakob Poeltl (OUT), the Raptors are missing a primary interior anchor, and if Scottie Barnes (DAY-TO-DAY) is limited, that’s another layer of defensive strain. Even with a modest 42.86% hit rate in seven games versus Toronto, the current form plus the road scoring profile makes 27.5 look short at this price.

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Bobby Portis Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets Matchup

• • Arena: Ball Arena
  • Location: Denver, CO
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Date: January 11, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET

Odds: Consensus -121 | Best Price -115 @ Fanatics

Bobby Portis is the top combo look on the slate based on both form and matchup history. He’s hit 19.5 points + rebounds + assists in 80% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 60.53% and a 20.8 season average that already clears the line. The opponent trend is the separator: Portis is 100% to this over in two games versus the Nuggets. His split profile also keeps the floor stable, averaging 22.3 at home and 19.7 on the road, which is important in a tougher road environment like Denver. With Kevin Porter Jr. (DAY-TO-DAY), Milwaukee’s secondary creation can tighten, and Portis is one of the first beneficiaries when extra usage and cleanup possessions are available. At -115, the market is still offering a playable number for a prop that’s been cashing at an elite recent clip.

The Betting Edge

The best prop value comes when the market lags behind role stability and opponent-specific results, and this slate offers multiple spots where the data stacks cleanly.