Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Thursday, January 22

Eight games headline the January 22 slate. The board is deep. The best edges come from props where recent hit rates, opponent history, and market-friendly prices all line up.

After scanning every available player prop market in the data, four plays stand out. Each one has multiple supporting angles. That includes last five and last ten hit rates, season baselines vs the line, and matchup-specific opponent data.

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Tyrese Maxey Over 25.5 Points

Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers Matchup

• Arena: Wells Fargo Center
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 22, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 22, 2026, at 8:33 AM ET

Tyrese Maxey enters tonight’s matchup with a season-long scoring profile that still grades above this number. He is averaging 30.0 points on the season versus a 25.5 line. He has also cleared this line in 76.92% of his season games. The opponent history is the separator. Maxey has hit in 100% of his last three against Houston. The matchup data supports it too. Houston’s defense ranks 25th in this prop’s opponent-defense rank. At the current price, -110 is the number to beat.

Jaden McDaniels Over 4.5 Rebounds

Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves Matchup

• Arena: Target Center
• Location: Minneapolis, MN
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 22, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 22, 2026, at 8:33 AM ET

Jaden McDaniels is the cleanest rebound trend on the slate. He has cleared 4.5 rebounds in 100% of his last five and 70% of his last ten. McDaniels has also hit in 60% of his last five against the Bulls. At plus money, the best price is doing real work.

LeBron James Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers Matchup

• Arena: Intuit Dome
• Location: Inglewood, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 22, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 22, 2026, at 8:33 AM ET

LeBron James has been a consistent PRA cover at this number. He has cleared 34.5 PRA in 100% of his last five and 90% of his last ten. His season average is 35.5, which keeps the baseline above the line. The head-to-head history is strong too. James has hit in 87.5% of his last eight against the Los Angeles Clippers. The range supports a playable floor. His PRA floor is 27.0 with a ceiling of 45.0. The best price at -105 is a meaningful upgrade from the consensus.

Paolo Banchero Over 5.5 Assists

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Matchup

• Arena: Kia Center
• Location: Orlando, FL
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 22, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 22, 2026, at 8:33 AM ET

Paolo Banchero is trending toward the over as a facilitator. He has cleared 5.5 assists in 80% of his last five and 60% of his last ten. The opponent history is also solid. Banchero has hit in 62.5% of eight games versus Charlotte. The split is worth noting too. He is averaging 6.2 assists on the road versus 3.7 at home, but the current form is carrying the bet. The matchup data helps. Charlotte’s opponent-defense rank is 27th in this category. At plus money, this is a price-driven over.

The Betting Edge

This slate has enough volume to force discipline. The best approach is still line shopping and sticking to props with multiple data signals.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 22.