Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Wednesday, January 21

Seven NBA games headline the January 21 slate. There’s also a back-to-back spot in Sacramento that can swing minutes and efficiency.

After scanning every available prop market in the data, four spots stand out. Each one has multi-angle support across hit rates, matchup history, and opponent profile.

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Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 Assists

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Matchup

• Arena: TD Garden
• Location: Boston, MA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 21, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET

Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:28 AM ET

Pascal Siakam enters tonight’s matchup with a clean assist profile at this number. He has cleared 3.5 assists in 100% of his last five games and 70% of his previous ten. Siakam is also sitting on a five-game over streak. The floor helps too, with a 3.0 floor and 5.0 ceiling. And the matchup history is stable, with a 50% hit rate in ten games against Boston.

Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points

Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks Matchup

• Arena: Madison Square Garden
• Location: New York, NY
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 21, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET

Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:28 AM ET

Miles McBride is priced like a role player, but his recent scoring profile says otherwise. He has cleared 9.5 points in 80% of his last ten games and is averaging 13.1 points on the season. The floor is also tight for this line, with a 9.0 floor and 17.5 ceiling. Brooklyn’s defense profile supports it too, with the Nets ranking 30th by the provided opponent points-allowed metric (11.7 allowed vs 14.2 league average). At the current number, the best price at -102 is doing extra work.

Zion Williamson Over 19.5 Points

Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans Matchup

• Arena: Smoothie King Center
• Location: New Orleans, LA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 21, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:28 AM ET

Zion Williamson has been living above this number. He has cleared 19.5 points in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten, with a season average of 22.5. The opponent history is a hammer, too. Williamson is 5-5 in his career against Detroit on this line, scoring (26, 32, 29, 36, and 30). The matchup data also flags Detroit as a soft spot here, ranking 30th by the provided opponent points-allowed metric (9.0 allowed vs 10.5 league average). With a 27.0 ceiling, this line still leaves room for a regular Zion scoring night.

Russell Westbrook Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, And Assists

Toronto Raptors @ Sacramento Kings Matchup

• Arena: Golden 1 Center
• Location: Sacramento, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 21, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 21, 2026, at 8:28 AM ET

Russell Westbrook is in full stat-stuffing mode. He has cleared 28.5 points, rebounds, and assists in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his previous ten. Westbrook’s season average is 28.6, which keeps the line honest. The streak matters, too, with a five-game run of overs. This game also comes in a back-to-back spot for both teams, per the schedule data. That can create volatility, but Westbrook’s recent role has been stable enough to keep the over in play. The best price at -105 is the key number.

The Betting Edge

This slate has enough volume to force discipline. The best props are the ones that stack hit rates with matchup history and a clean price. 

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 21.