NCAAF · 4 hours ago

Big Ten Week 7 Expert Picks and Best Bets for Friday & Saturday

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Week 7 of the College Football season offers us a full slate of Big Ten games, as all 18 teams take the field this weekend, starting with Rutgers traveling to Washington tonight.

The game of the week is a top-ten matchup between No. 3 Oregon and No. 7 Indiana. Which Hoosiers will we see? The one who performs like a top-five team or the one that wilts against top-five teams? Also, on the West Coast, No. 15 Michigan takes on USC in a classic old-school Rose Bowl matchup, with the winner’s CFP odds set to take a big bump. The Wolverines present a tough matchup for the Trojans, thanks to their strong running game. However, USC is different at home, and traditional B1G schools have had issues with travel. We’re going to pass on both of those games, but don’t fret, as we have seven plays for Week 7, including four B1G Bets.

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Big Ten Week 6 College Football Picks

B1G: Power Rankings | Bowl Projections

Last Week: 2-3 (EVEN) | Overall: 19-19 (EVEN)

Not So B1G Bets: 12-13 (- 1/2 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 7-5 (+2 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 6-15 (-5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 10-4 (+4.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 3-2 (+1/2 UNIT)

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-3 | Season: 12-13 (-1/2 UNIT)

WASHINGTON -10.5 Rutgers (@DraftKings)

FRIDAY | Time: 9:00 PM | TV: FS1

As we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, teams in the Big Ten traveling multiple time zones have had a hard time of things since the four former Pac-12 schools joined the conference last season. B1G teams going West are 5-12 ATS since 2024. Included in those 17 games is a 22-point loss by Rutgers (+14.5) at USC, as well as a 1-2 record for teams traveling to Husky Stadium.

Yes, Ohio State got the Huskies in Seattle two weeks ago to snap their home winning streak, but that’s the Buckeyes, who are ranked No. 1 in the country. While the offense struggled in the red zone that Saturday, the defense held its own against OSU (24 points allowed).

Last season, Washington beat Northwestern by 19 points (-11.5) and Michigan by 10 points (-1.5) in the Great Northwest. Regardless of time zones, UW is 7-3 ATS at home (6-2 as the favorite) since the start of last season. This is one of the toughest places to play in college football, and having to go cross-country only adds to the challenge for the Scarlet Knights.

The strength of RU’s offense is its receiving corps, which features a pair of giant pass catchers (6’3” and 6’6”). In Ephesians Prysock (6’4”), the Huskies have one of the few corners that can match up. It’s possible they could have two if Tacario Davis (6’4”) makes his return on Friday. Davis, their best defender, dressed and warmed up last week, so there is optimism that he will play against Rutgers.

In addition, two Huskies are expected to make their season debuts in defensive tackle Jayvon Parker, the top D-lineman, and prized freshman linebacker Zaydrius Rainey-Sale. This defense could be trending up.

Rutgers has flashed explosiveness but not the consistency to keep up with UW. After jumping out to leads in losses to Iowa and Minnesota in their two Big Ten games, the Scarlet Knights were shut out in the third quarter both times and have a total of 14 second-half points in conference play.

Washington starts a new home winning streak and takes care of RU by two to three touchdowns—more on this game below.

Ohio State Over 32.5 vs. ILLINOIS (-110 @Bet365)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Since taking over at Illinois, Bret Bielema has made a killing against ranked opponents, with a 9-4 record ATS, including 6-2 with this core (since the start of last season). They are 5-1 ATS this season. Then again, Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS. You can make the case for either side. As great as OSU’s defense has been, I see a bigger edge for the Buckeyes when they have the ball.

Quarterback Julian Sayin has been accurate (80.2 percent), playing within the system and taking what the defense gives him, including attacking downfield, as we saw more of that last week. They were a little conservative in his first road start at Washington, but I expect Ryan Day to be more aggressive with his quarterback this Saturday.

They appear to be giving Sayin more rope in stages. And when you have weapons like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate at your disposal, how do you not feed them the ball? Smith leads the team with 35 receptions for 463 yards and six touchdowns. Tate is coming off a career game (9 receptions, 183 yards) and averages a team-high 18.1 YPC.

I’m backing the Buckeyes on offense partially due to their impressive metrics: second in success rate, eighth in EPA/play (per game on paper), and 12th in points per drive. However, it’s the abysmal defense that Illinois has played this season that really makes this a must-play. On those same metrics, the Illini’s defense ranks 100th in success rate, 94th in EPA/play, and 108th in points per drive.

If you’ve watched Illinois, their tackling his been embarrassing. The numbers back that up as well, as they’re ranked 91st in missed tackle rate and 115th in yards after the catch. All of that leads to chunk plays, as they’ve allowed 83 plays of 10+ yards (120th) and six of 40+ (91st).

OSU’s receivers excel once they have the ball in their hands, and the emergence of true freshman running back Bo Jackson (360 yards, 7.5 YPC)—no relation—gives them a weapon on the ground. In the trenches, the Illini haven’t shown much fight as opposing teams move them off the line of scrimmage, allowing runners to pick up yards before a defender makes contact. The Buckeyes have 12 plays of 40+ yards (tied for 2nd).

In three conference games, Illinois has allowed 63 points (579 yards) to Indiana, 32 (490 yards) to USC, and 27 (453 yards) to Purdue. In those last two games, they created two turnovers, which helped limit the points to some extent.

Additionally, their offense experienced considerable success. Against the Trojans, they punted once. Last week against the Boilermakers, the Illini controlled the ball for 34:32, resulting in a 9:04 edge in time of possession, which kept the defense off the field. Neither of those things is going to happen on Saturday against OSU’s strong defense.

One final note: Illinois is one of four Power Four teams that have played every week this season.

Northwestern UNDER 13.5 vs. PENN STATE (-120 @DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: FS1

Yes. I am aware that Northwestern scored 42 points last week. And that Penn State allowed 42 points to UCLA. Throw the previous Saturday out the window!

In Northwestern’s three most challenging games, the Wildcats scored three points at Tulane, 14 points vs. Oregon (all coming in the final 7 minutes, including a 79-yard TD run after the two-minute timeout), and 17 points vs. UCLA. This is their first road game since their season opener at Tulane.

I still don’t believe in their offense. QB Preston Stone is averaging only 6.8 YPA with seven touchdowns to six interceptions. Expect them to be conservative. Their offensive line will struggle to get a push, and Penn State will be able to bottle up their running game.

Before last week, the Nittany Lions allowed four touchdowns in regulation through four games. Two came in the final 30 seconds against Nevada and Villanova (on the final play), and two against Oregon. They didn’t show up last week. Expect some pride this Saturday back in Happy Valley.

Even with last week’s disappointing performance, PSU still has strong metrics. They’re excellent in terms of yards before and after contact on the ground, and yards after the catch. They also put pressure on the quarterback.

They’re shutting down Northwestern’s offense for four quarters.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 7-5 (+2 UNIT)

Washington OVER 35.5 (-110 @DraftKings)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

The Huskies broke out of their seven-quarter slump, where they failed to score a touchdown, with a 21-point fourth quarter to complete their 20-point comeback at Maryland last Saturday. Expect that momentum to continue on Friday night.

Before facing two of the best defenses in college football (SP+ defenses: Ohio State No. 1, Maryland No. 14), the Huskies averaged 55.7 PPG in their first three games. Scoring 35-plus points shouldn’t be much of a challenge against a Rutgers defense that has allowed over 30 points three times this season, including 38 points by Iowa.

In two Big Ten games, RU allowed more points than their opponent’s season average. Washington is at 39.4 PPG. The Knights are 123rd in defensive success rate, 116th in defensive EPA, and 99th in points per drive, according to CFB-Graphs. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Huskies aren’t forced to punt.

Despite having played OSU and Maryland, Washington’s offense is 11th in success rate, 15th in EPA, and 17th in points per drive. Rutgers had trouble with mobile quarterbacks against Ohio and Iowa, and Demond Williams is more dynamic than any QB they’ve faced this season. He’s going to light them up. Denzel Boston is a legit No. 1 WR with Dezmen Roebuck and TE Decker DeGraaf stepping up into complementary roles. Roebuck has caught four passes in each of his three starts, averaging 15.9 YPC, while DeGraaf is coming off a career-best six catches for 62 yards at Maryland.

Before you can even worry about Williams and the passing attack, Rutgers needs to focus on Jonah Coleman (474 yards, 10 TDs rushing). The Huskies can beat you so many ways and are much more balanced than either B1G team RU has faced (Iowa and Minnesota). This is an absolute mismatch.

There are 34.5s out there, but they’ll set you back a pretty penny (-160 @BetMGM).

Nebraska-MARYLAND UNDER 48 (@Caesars)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

I’ve been looking for a spot to fade Maryland, but it hasn’t appeared. At Wisconsin? Back the Badgers? Come on. Home for Washington? Buy into the travel excuses or not, the Huskies are not known for being road warriors. Now they host the Cornhuskers. This is Nebraska’s first road game of the season, and under Matt Rhule, they have a 2-8 record in ten Big Ten road games. Now they’re supposed to win by at least a touchdown?

While remaining skeptical about the Terps, I have grown to appreciate their defense. They’re seventh in points per drive, ninth in success rate, and 32nd in EPA. They’ve always had athletes in the secondary, but this group, led by a pair of freshman edge defenders, is more aggressive and physical upfront than previous units. Sidney Stewart (4.5 sacks) and Zahir Mathis (4.5 sacks) headline a pass rush that has 19 sacks, which tops the Big Ten and is fourth nationally. They can really get after it.

On the flip side, Nebraska has allowed 15 sacks (120th in sacks per game), with 12 coming in two Big Ten games. Injuries aren’t to blame this year, and they reshuffled things last week when Elijah Pritchett got his first start of the season, at left tackle no less, and Gunnar Gottula shifted to the right side. The results weren’t great as Michigan State got to Dylan Raiola five times after recording six sacks in their first four games. SpartanTailgate, MSU’s 247Sports.com site, wrote about their pass rush finally showing “signs of life at Nebraska.”

Raiola is also part of the problem as he tends to hold onto the ball too long. Hard to believe they’re going to make a leap in this department on the road, where things become more challenging for the QB and O-line.

So why not just take the points with Maryland? It’s hard to trust an offense that’s 114th in success rate, 108th in yards per play, 94th in points per drive, and 90th in EPA. They can’t run the ball and are overly reliant on their true freshman quarterback, which is a bad matchup against the Huskers, who have been elite against the pass and have an experienced secondary.

Maryland’s two Big Ten games have seen totals of 37 and 44 points, and I don’t expect this one to be higher.

MINNESOTA-Purdue OVER 49.5 (@FanDuel)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

I know some of you cringe when this space is filled with UNDERS, so here’s another Purdue game OVER to enjoy. The Boilermakers have improved on offense (47th in points per drive), especially when passing the ball. The return of Ryan Browne has been successful (relatively speaking), and they have several receivers with long speed, headlined by the aptly named Nitro Tuggle (17.2 YPC, 3 TDs). Browne has passed for 250 yards four times and cracked 300 yards three times, including both B1G games. Their success rate per dropback is 29th nationally.

Purdue has scored at least 27 points in four of five games, including 30 points at Notre Dame. In three games against Power Four opponents, the Gophers have allowed at least 27 points all three times. Minnesota’s defense is 111th in points per drive and 98th in success rate per dropback, and has been especially vulnerable to the pass.

Purdue’s defense (125th in yards per play) might be the worst in the Big Ten and doesn’t look any better than they were in 2024. In three Power Four games, the Boilermakers have given up an average of 44 PPG, with a low of 33 points.

They are not good at football things, especially tackling. They’re 100th in yards before contact, 90th in yards after contact, and 136th in yards after the catch. It’s a defense that any offense can get healthy against.

The Gophers might not be a juggernaut offensively, but this is the most explosive their passing attack (38th in passing success rate) has been in years. Drake Lindsey (7 TDs, 2 INTs) has been accurate and has flashed the ability to throw the ball down the field. He has a big arm, and the Gophers are making the most of it. Fellow redshirt freshman Jalen Smith (22 YPC) had a breakout game against Rutgers (103 yards), and transfer Javon Tracy (17 YPC) is another big-play weapon. A week after facing Ohio State, they’re going to want to cut it loose.

Wisconsin UNDER 16.5 (+100 @DraftKings)

Time: 7:00 PM | TV: FS1

Wisconsin might have the worst offense in the Big Ten.

They are 121st in scoring (18.6 PPG), with only Oklahoma State ranked lower among Power Four teams. That includes a 42-point explosion against MTSU. In three games against Power Four opponents, that average drops to 11.3 PPG, including a kick return touchdown against Alabama.

This was supposed to be the season they returned to Badger football, but they rank 118th in rushing (109.2 YPG) and 129th in yards per carry (3.7). They have one run over 20 yards (by a WR). The running backs have underperformed, but it’s not all on them. Their offensive line has started five different combinations through five games, and the unit has struggled significantly with their starting center out due to injury in the past two games. With 14 sacks allowed (113th in sacks per game), the pass protection hasn’t been much better. Overall, Wisconsin is 123rd in yards per play.

Not having a healthy Billy Edwards Jr. hasn’t helped, and it appears Hunter Simmons will get the nod again if Edwards can’t go. Simmons led them on an opening drive TD at Michigan last week, and they didn’t score again until they kicked a field goal on their final drive.

Having played Alabama, Maryland, and Michigan, it doesn’t get any easier this week as rival Iowa comes to Madison on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are coming off a loss and had an extra week to prepare. The same defense that held a high-powered Indiana offense to 20 points is ranked 20th in yards per play allowed.

As always, Iowa is strong in the trenches, making it challenging to run on. They rank tenth in yards before contact allowed, going up against an O-line that is 82nd in the same category and a backfield that is 121st in yards after contact.

Three defensive linemen have at least two sacks this season, led by EDGE Max Llewellyn (5 sacks). On the back end, their secondary, led by three active safeties, and Phil Parker’s zone scheme limit yards after the catch. The Hawkeyes are 19th in scoring defense (15.6 PPG) and 29th in points per drive. They’ve really only had one bad half when they gave up 21 first-half points to Rutgers. Take that poor 30 minutes out, and they’re allowing 6.3 points per half.

This might not be a vintage Phil Parker unit, but it is still top 35 in EPA/rush and EPA dropback (27th in defensive EPA) and 32nd in defensive success rate.