NCAAF · 1 year ago

College Football Upset Watch: 5 Week 5 Favorites Who Could Fall

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

5. UCF (-15.5) vs. Colorado
There are a lot of reasons to like UCF in this game and I am a huge backer of the Knights with multiple win total and conference winner future plays on Gus Malzahn’s squad. UCF has the top rushing attack in the country and Colorado still has no running game, along with a leaky offensive line. It’s a bad matchup for the Buffaloes. They have the better quarterback and they have, quite possibly, the best player in the country, Travis Hunter. That makes an upset a possibility and if UCF struggles to throw the ball effectively and is too one-dimensional, it could be close late. That would favor Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter and give the Buffaloes a shot as double-digit underdogs.

UCF (-15.5) vs. Colorado

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1. Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State
The Kansas State Wildcats host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in what likely amounts to a Big 12 Championship elimination game. Both teams are coming off losses: Kansas State in an ugly and sloppy loss at BYU and Oklahoma State at home to Utah. A second loss this early in the season would probably take either of them out of the running for the league title game. Kansas State outgained BYU but they continue to get bit by the turnover bug. The Wildcats are -2 in turnover margin and Avery Johnson has struggled against teams that can limit KSU’s running game. Oklahoma State has not been able to run the ball near like what was anticipated. Ollie Gordon does not look like the 2023 version of himself, and the offensive line is nowhere near what it was a year ago. What happens if that flips against the Wildcats and Kansas State turns it over a couple of times? That would be a recipe for a road upset.

Week 5: Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State
2. Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5) at Alabama
Someone has to be the underdog and in this case, it is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa as 2.5-point favorites against Alabama. Alabama being an underdog at home is a rarity: the Crimson Tide have not been in this scenario since November of 2007 (they were 6.5 point dogs to LSU and lost 41-34). This is the beginning of a new era in this rivalry for SEC supremacy as Kalen DeBoer takes on Smart for the first time as the head coach in Tuscaloosa. Georgia looked awesome in the second half of the season opener against Clemson and then they overwhelmed a weak opponent but were poor on offense and fortunate to survive at Kentucky before a bye week. Jalen Milroe is comfortable at home and the Crimson Tide has the athletes on defense to match up with UGA’s skill players. Alabama getting points, especially at home, is a rarity and UGA knows they’ll need an “A” game to win.

Georgia (-2.5) at Alabama
3. Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Louisville
What are we to make of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish? They have a couple of dominant wins and a shocking loss to Northern Illinois (who lost to Buffalo this past weekend) and have struggled mightily in the passing game with Riley Leonard at quarterback. The Louisville Cardinals just played a strong rushing attack and a mobile quarterback as they hosted Haynes King and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Leonard and King are quite similar and Louisville limited the Yellow Jackets on the ground (2.6 yards per carry in 37 rushing attempts) very effectively. The Cardinals can be had through the air but Notre Dame does not look capable of exploiting that potential weakness. Louisville won this matchup last season 33-20 and they are now getting nearly seven points against the Irish. A loss for Notre Dame would probably eliminate them from playoff contention.

Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Louisville

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4. Boise State (-7.5) vs. Washington State
Boise State is one of the primary contenders for the Group of Five automatic bid (which goes to the highest-ranked conference champion), so Washington State does not qualify for that spot and would need to grab an at-large spot) and they host the Washington State Cougars on Saturday night. Boise State has a superstar at running back but the rest of the offense has not shown much to scare opposing defenses. Washington State has a quarterback capable of putting up points and keeping the Cougs in this matchup. John Mateer is a fun player to watch and he has thrown for 1102 yards with 11 touchdowns plus 425 rushing yards and five touchdowns. This game is likely going to be a shootout and the Cougars have the better quarterback, making them a live underdog in this game.

Boise State (-7.5) vs. Washington State

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5. UCF (-15.5) vs. Colorado
There are a lot of reasons to like UCF in this game and I am a huge backer of the Knights with multiple win total and conference winner future plays on Gus Malzahn’s squad. UCF has the top rushing attack in the country and Colorado still has no running game, along with a leaky offensive line. It’s a bad matchup for the Buffaloes. They have the better quarterback and they have, quite possibly, the best player in the country, Travis Hunter. That makes an upset a possibility and if UCF struggles to throw the ball effectively and is too one-dimensional, it could be close late. That would favor Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter and give the Buffaloes a shot as double-digit underdogs.

UCF (-15.5) vs. Colorado

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1. Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State
The Kansas State Wildcats host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in what likely amounts to a Big 12 Championship elimination game. Both teams are coming off losses: Kansas State in an ugly and sloppy loss at BYU and Oklahoma State at home to Utah. A second loss this early in the season would probably take either of them out of the running for the league title game. Kansas State outgained BYU but they continue to get bit by the turnover bug. The Wildcats are -2 in turnover margin and Avery Johnson has struggled against teams that can limit KSU’s running game. Oklahoma State has not been able to run the ball near like what was anticipated. Ollie Gordon does not look like the 2023 version of himself, and the offensive line is nowhere near what it was a year ago. What happens if that flips against the Wildcats and Kansas State turns it over a couple of times? That would be a recipe for a road upset.

Week 5: Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State

College Football Upset Watch: 5 Week 5 Favorites Who Could Fall

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