NCAAF · 1 year ago

Predicting the College Football 12-Team Playoff

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

8. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 9. Miami Hurricanes
The final first-round clash would be in Oxford as the eighth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels host the ninth-seeded Miami Hurricanes. That would mean the Big Ten would get three teams selected, the SEC would get four, and the ACC would grab a second selection as Miami squeaks in after losing the ACC Championship Game to Clemson. Ole Miss loaded up in the transfer portal, and they returned one of the best quarterbacks in the country who will be throwing to one of the nation’s top group of wide receivers. If the lines of scrimmage have been improved enough in the transfer portal, and I think they have, this is the best roster Ole Miss has had in my lifetime (and I am nearing 40!). The Miami Hurricanes brought in Cam Ward and quickly loaded up the roster around him with transfer portal additions. The Hurricanes might have the ACC’s best offensive line, best quarterback, and best group of wide receivers. If Ward is as good as they think he is, they should be able to go 11-1 with their schedule. The winner of this game gets Ohio State in round two.

Ole Miss Odds to Make CFP: -145
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten Champion)
I am giving the No. 1 seed to my projected Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU returns a solid offensive line and an excellent group of wide receivers, and they added the best high school prospect in the country, Jeremiah Smith. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are one of the country’s best running-back duos. I worry a bit about Will Howard, but I think the new offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, will lean heavily toward the run game. The defense is the biggest reason I project Ohio State as the best team in the country. I believe this defense will allow fewer than ten points per game. They only gave up 11.2, and they now bring back nearly every major contributor and added the country’s best safety in Caleb Downs. The Buckeyes will play the winner of the eight versus nine in the second round.

Ohio State 2024 Big Ten Title Odds: +145
2. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC Champion)
The Georgia Bulldogs take the No. 2 seed as the SEC Champion. In the past few seasons, Georgia has been able to cruise through the regular season with a relatively easy schedule. That will certainly not be the case this year. UGA opens with Clemson (more on the Tigers on the next slide) and plays Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss on the road. They also host Tennessee and Georgia Tech. The strength of schedule is up there with nearly anyone else in the country. I don’t think Georgia will have the best regular season record in the league, but they will squeak into the SEC Championship Game, beat Texas in Atlanta, and grab the No. 2 seed. They would play the winner of the seven versus ten matchup.

Georgia 2024 Odds to Win the SEC: +180
3. Clemson Tigers (ACC Champion)
The Clemson Tigers retake the ACC crown and earn the No. 3 seed in the expanded College Football Playoff. I have Clemson losing the first game of the season and then going 10-1 the rest of the way, making the ACC Championship Game and winning that contest to secure the league’s auto-bid and a first-round College Football Playoff bye. Cade Klubnik is healthy and should be able to utilize his legs much more than he did in 2023. He will combine with Phil Mafah and Keith Adams Jr. to form a good rushing attack and open up a passing game that should be boosted by a healthier group of receivers and the infusion of two five-star receivers. Clemson’s strength is defense; if the secondary can get healthy, this should be one of the better units in the country. They have a stout defensive line with two potential stars, Peter Woods and T.J. Parker, and an outstanding linebacker, Barrett Carter. The Tigers would take on the winner of the six-seed versus 11-seed matchup.

Clemson ACC Title Odds: +300
4. UCF Knights (Big 12 Champion)
Here is where I depart from the expected and make a wild pick that could look quite stupid midway through the season. My projected Big 12 winner is the UCF Knights. Gus Malzahn may have found his perfect muse at quarterback in Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson. The combination of Jefferson and running backs Peny Boone, RJ Harvey, and Johnny Richardson in a Malzahn offense with a veteran offensive line will be nightmare fuel for Big 12 defenses. The defense was infused with talent from the transfer portal, and the Knights should have improved from a season ago and at least a top half of the league unit. This team should be fun to watch, and face Utah at home to end the regular season.

UCF Big 12 Title Odds: +850
5. Texas Longhorns vs. 12. Memphis Tigers
Moving to the first-round matchups, the Texas Longhorns grab the fifth seed and will play host to the top Group of Five team: the Memphis Tigers. The Tigers will be the champions of the American Athletic Conference. I am projecting Texas to grab the spot in the playoff over an unbeaten Liberty Flames team because of Liberty’s Charmin-soft schedule. After losing the SEC Championship Game to the Georgia Bulldogs, Texas gets the fifth seed. I think the playoff selection committee will reward teams, or at least avoid punishing them, that make it to conference title games and lose. The Longhorns will be a handful with the return of Quinn Ewers and a highly talented group of pass-catchers. Memphis brings back veteran quarterback Seth Henigan and a pair of dynamic pass-catchers. If they can improve on defense, the Tigers could go 11-1 en route to an AAC title. This game will be in Austin, and Texas would be a heavy favorite to advance, with the winner playing UCF.

Texas Odds to Make CFP: -220
6. Oregon Ducks vs. 11. Penn State Nittany Lions
Lions, Tigers, and Ducks, oh my. Yes, the Oregon Ducks will grab the sixth seed after losing the Big Ten Championship Game to Ohio State and take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in Eugene. Oregon should have a solid defense as Dan Lanning continues to improve the roster's depth and beef up the lines of scrimmage. Dillon Gabriel is in at quarterback, and transfer wide receiver Evan Stewart completes a talented room of dynamic playmakers. Penn State hopes to take the next step with a pair of new coordinators and the combination of Drew Allar and two good running backs, plus a stout defense. I am not projecting them to elevate at all, as 11th is basically where James Franklin’s teams typically end up. They’ll lose to Ohio State and finish with an impressive record but no signature win. That will be good enough to make the playoff, and they’ll be a road team and underdog at Oregon, with the winner playing Clemson.

Oregon Ducks Odds to Make CFP: -360
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish cannot get a first-round bye, but I have them making the College Football Playoff and hosting a first-round game as the seventh seed. The Irish have a relatively soft schedule, particularly after the week one trip to Texas A&M. The defense should be stout, and the Fighting Irish feel good about the offense with the addition of Riley Leonard. If healthy, he provides a real running threat that could pair very nicely with running back Jeremiyah Love. The offensive line is a concern, but they have earned the benefit of the doubt. The tenth seed goes to the Alabama Crimson Tide, earning a bid in Kalen DeBoer’s first season in Tuscaloosa. The Tide hopes to succeed with Jalen Milroe at quarterback, and DeBoer is one of the brightest offensive minds in the country. He will get the most out of Milroe and a suspect group of weapons around him. The defense has a lot of uncertainty, but plenty of five-star talent haven’t had a chance to prove themselves yet. The one area that could be their undoing is the secondary. This game would be in South Bend in December, and Alabama fans would need to find some winter weather gear to make the trip.

Notre Dame Odds to Make CFP: -170
8. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 9. Miami Hurricanes
The final first-round clash would be in Oxford as the eighth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels host the ninth-seeded Miami Hurricanes. That would mean the Big Ten would get three teams selected, the SEC would get four, and the ACC would grab a second selection as Miami squeaks in after losing the ACC Championship Game to Clemson. Ole Miss loaded up in the transfer portal, and they returned one of the best quarterbacks in the country who will be throwing to one of the nation’s top group of wide receivers. If the lines of scrimmage have been improved enough in the transfer portal, and I think they have, this is the best roster Ole Miss has had in my lifetime (and I am nearing 40!). The Miami Hurricanes brought in Cam Ward and quickly loaded up the roster around him with transfer portal additions. The Hurricanes might have the ACC’s best offensive line, best quarterback, and best group of wide receivers. If Ward is as good as they think he is, they should be able to go 11-1 with their schedule. The winner of this game gets Ohio State in round two.

Ole Miss Odds to Make CFP: -145
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten Champion)
I am giving the No. 1 seed to my projected Big Ten Champion, the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU returns a solid offensive line and an excellent group of wide receivers, and they added the best high school prospect in the country, Jeremiah Smith. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are one of the country’s best running-back duos. I worry a bit about Will Howard, but I think the new offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, will lean heavily toward the run game. The defense is the biggest reason I project Ohio State as the best team in the country. I believe this defense will allow fewer than ten points per game. They only gave up 11.2, and they now bring back nearly every major contributor and added the country’s best safety in Caleb Downs. The Buckeyes will play the winner of the eight versus nine in the second round.

Ohio State 2024 Big Ten Title Odds: +145

Predicting the College Football 12-Team Playoff

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