Can the Indianapolis Colts Stay Hot in a Tricky Road Spot vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Week 9 NFL: Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Indianapolis Rolling While Pittsburgh Reels

Colts Emerging as an AFC Juggernaut

The Colts have quietly turned into one of the NFL’s most dangerous teams. After an uneven start, they’ve found rhythm behind Daniel Jones, a deep backfield, and an improving defense that’s starting to dictate tempo rather than react to it.

Now they enter Week 9 as slight favorites (-3) against the Steelers, with a surprisingly high total of 50.5 — a number that feels foreign for a Steelers game under Mike Tomlin. For context, Pittsburgh totals have lived in the low-to-mid 40s for much of the past two years. The market has officially adjusted to how explosive Indianapolis has become.

Tomlin’s track record as an underdog remains one of the league’s best, but the Steelers’ current defensive form makes that hard to trust. This group, once among the NFL’s most disciplined, is struggling badly in coverage and communication.

Steelers’ Defense: From Gritty to Gassed

Pittsburgh’s defensive identity has evaporated. Over the last two games, they’ve allowed opponents to complete over 70% of passes and average 6.8 yards per play — unheard of numbers for a Tomlin-coached team.

Last week’s meltdown against the Green Bay Packers told the story. The Steelers looked composed in the first half, leading 16–7, but collapsed after the break. The Packers dominated time of possession, moving the ball at will through the air and on the ground.

Tucker Kraft couldn’t be covered.
Jamar Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals had done the same the week prior.
The secondary has been gutted by injuries, forcing the team to trade for Kyle Dugger from New England Patriots after losing DeShon Elliott.

It’s a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. Dugger adds versatility, but this defense isn’t one fix away from respectability. Without reliable pressure and with coverage breakdowns piling up, Pittsburgh is giving up explosive plays at a rate unseen in years.

Colts’ Offense: Balanced, Explosive, and Dangerous

The Colts’ rise has been driven by an offense that’s become both balanced and unpredictable. Jones has matured significantly — reading defenses quicker and taking fewer unnecessary hits.

The supporting cast has also found its stride:

Jonathan Taylor is healthy and running with his pre-injury explosiveness.
Tyler Warren has become a nightmare matchup at tight end.
Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. continue to complement each other perfectly, giving Jones reliable outlets in all zones.

Indianapolis ranks top-10 in yards per play and red-zone scoring efficiency, and the market has noticed. Their team total has been climbing weekly — a sign of public trust in Richardson’s evolution.

Buy or Sell: Colts Maintain Juggernaut Status

Verdict: Buy

The Colts’ blend of creativity and physicality is making them one of the hardest outs in the AFC. Head coach Shane Steichen has tailored the offense perfectly to Richardson’s strengths, mixing RPO looks with vertical play-action shots.

Defensively, the Colts aren’t elite, but they’re opportunistic — forcing turnovers at key moments. Against a Pittsburgh team that can’t stretch the field and tends to abandon the run when trailing, this matchup sets up perfectly for Indianapolis to control tempo and dictate possession.

If the Colts jump out early, this could get ugly fast.

Betting Spotlight: Colts -3, Total 50.5

The spread is tight, but the market direction is clear — Indianapolis is trending upward, while Pittsburgh is in free fall.

Line: Colts -3
Total: 50.5
Public Money: Roughly 65% of tickets on Indianapolis, early sharp action on the Over.

Historically, Tomlin thrives as an underdog (62% ATS since 2018), but that trend loses teeth when the defense can’t get off the field. The Colts’ offensive versatility should keep Pittsburgh chasing all afternoon.

Best Bets

Colts -3 (-110): The better quarterback, play-caller, and defense.
Over 50.5 (-105): Pittsburgh’s coverage issues and Indianapolis’ pace both favor points.
Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-125): Taylor’s red-zone usage has spiked to 63% of team carries inside the 10-yard line.

Fantasy Outlook: Colts Skill Players Trending Up

Fantasy managers can finally trust Colts skill players again — and that’s not something we’ve said in years.

Daniel Jones: Back to top-10 QB status with his dual-threat ability.
Jonathan Taylor: A clear RB1; game script keeps him involved throughout.
Michael Pittman Jr.: A target hog who’s matchup-proof in PPR formats.
Tyler Warren: One of the league’s breakout tight ends and a red-zone staple.

As for Pittsburgh, there’s little fantasy optimism. The offense remains conservative, you’re likely looking at Jaylen Warren as the only viable fantasy starter.

Betting Trends

Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
Steelers have hit the Over in three straight, largely because their defense can’t get stops.
Indianapolis has scored 27+ points in five of their last six.

The key stat: teams facing the Steelers have averaged 11.8 yards per completion over the last four weeks — the highest in the league. That bodes poorly against a vertical passing offense like Indy’s.

Bottom Line

The Colts look like a legitimate AFC playoff threat, while the Steelers are searching for answers on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis has balance, explosiveness, and momentum — three things Pittsburgh lacks right now. Unless Tomlin can conjure up a vintage defensive effort, the Colts should roll to another statement win.

Prediction: Colts 31, Steelers 23

Best Bet: Colts -3

Fantasy Takeaway: Start all your Colts; fade all your Steelers.

You can read all about what’s going on in the National Football League at SportsGrid.com.