Jets vs Patriots Betting Trends | NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football

The New England Patriots are rolling into Thursday Night Football with a chance to tighten their grip on the AFC East, while the New York Jets are simply trying to stay afloat. New England has won five straight and sits at 8-2, while New York’s 2-7 record reflects an offense searching for answers and a defense that has been forced to shoulder too much for too long.

From line movement to matchup edges, here’s how bettors are attacking Jets–Patriots on BetMGM heading into Week 11.

NYJ vs NE Matchup Board: Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Jets vs Patriots Spread & Total Movement

The market made its stance clear early: New England opened at -10.5 and has been bet up to -13, with 57% of tickets and 63% of handle riding the Pats. New York has been competitive in spurts, but the Jets’ offense ranks bottom-two in both passing and total yardage, and their -10 turnover differential has buried them repeatedly.

Oddsmakers expect another slow-paced, defense-heavy Patriots script, with the total sitting at 43.5. The Over is drawing 57% of bets but just 20% of handle—a classic example of public leaning over while sharper money sits on the under.

Jets vs Patriots Moneyline Lean

The Patriots have surged on the moneyline from -625 to -900 with 71% of handle behind them. New York is catching +600 but only pulling 29% of the handle. That mirrors how these teams are trending:

• Patriots: winners of five straight, including road wins at Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and New Orleans.
• Jets: two straight wins, but before that had dropped four in a row, scoring 13 points or fewer in three of those games.

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Jets vs Patriots Key Matchup Edges

Patriots’ Run Defense vs Jets Ground Game

This is the biggest mismatch of the night:

• Patriots rank No. 1 in run defense (79.2 YPG allowed).
• Jets’ Breece Hall averages 15.3 carries per game, but New England allows a league-low 21.0 RB attempts per game.

If New York can’t run, they can’t stay on schedule—and that’s been the case most of the season.

Jets Passing Offense vs Patriots Secondary

• Jets sit dead last in passing offense (143.8 YPG).
• Patriots give up 227.0 passing yards per game, but generate pressure and limit explosives.
• New England is 6th in points allowed (19.2 per game) and holds opponents to short drives with top-tier run defense.

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense

Drake Maye’s efficiency has been the difference:

• 2,555 passing yards, 19 TDs, 71% completion rate.
• Patriots average 26.5 points per game, No. 8 in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Jets allow 26.8 PPG (26th) and have surrendered at least 23 points in five of their last six.

Standings Context

New England sits atop the AFC East at 8-2, ahead of both the Buffalo Bills (6-3) and Miami Dolphins (3-7). The Jets, at 2-7, are in the basement and staring at another season slipping away.

Jets vs Patriots Final Betting Read

Bettors are lining up behind:

• Patriots -13
• Under 43.5 (sharp side)
• Patriots ML -900 (parlay piece)

With the Jets unable to generate consistent offense and the Patriots leaning into elite defensive structure plus Maye’s rhythm, the market is expecting New England to control the game end-to-end.

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All BetMGM data is based on straight bets.