Kalshi Ranks the 8 Teams Most Likely to Make the No. 1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft
John Canady
Host · Writer
The college football season is approaching an end, and the NFL regular season is quickly unwinding. Looking ahead to the offseason, all eyes will shortly be on the NFL Draft as the bottom teams in the standings continue to battle it out in the race for the No. 1 overall pick. That said, here’s a look at Kalshi’s odds for the most likely teams to make the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Note: This projection is for which team will SELECT No. 1 overall, not earn the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Odds are fluent and likely to shift after the publication of this article)
Kalshi’s Odds to Select No. 1 Overall in the 2026 NFL Draft
1) Cleveland Browns
Record: 3-8
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 88% | Tankathon Order: 6
The Cleveland Browns are the one team that may need the No. 1 overall pick the most in the league. Cleveland’s constant cycle of mediocre quarterback play has completely stumped its chances to contend, even with one of the most dominant defenses in the league. If the Browns can somehow earn the top pick, Cleveland could very much be back in the race for the AFC North next season.
2) Las Vegas Raiders
Record: 2-9
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 34% | Tankathon Order: 5
The Las Vegas Raiders believed they had put an end to their massive QB issue, making a bold move to reunite Geno Smith with head coach Pete Carroll this offseason. Instead, LV quickly found out that Band-Aids simply aren’t going to be able to patch up this glaring roster hole. That said, the Raiders are another quarterback-needy team hoping the cards fall in their favor.
3) Tennessee Titans
Record: 1-10
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 31% | Tankathon Order: 1
One year removed from earning the No. 1 overall pick to select their franchise QB of the future, it’s bizarre to see the Tennessee Titans back in the mix for the top pick again. Nonetheless, the harsh reality is that Tennessee has more than one roster weakness, and if they were able to land the top pick, it would do them a massive favor by getting them one step closer to contending.
4) New York Jets
Record: 2-9
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 24% | Tankathon Order: 4
The New York Jets’ struggles have now passed from head coach Robert Saleh to newcomer Aaron Glenn. New York has solid pieces on the roster, but until the team finds adequate quarterback play, nothing else will matter. Fortunately for them, they have the ammunition to take a swing at the top pick, even if they’re not the team to earn it.
5) Washington Commanders
Record: 3-8
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 15% | Tankathon Order: 7
This time last season, the Washington Commanders were gearing up for what ended up being a deep postseason run. Now, they find themselves in the conversation to select at No. 1 overall this offseason. Triumphed by injuries, if the Commanders miss out on the playoffs, earning a top pick would be a solid consolation prize.
6) New Orleans Saints
Record: 2-9
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 10% | Tankathon Order: 3
The New Orleans Saints may be one of the most underwhelming names on this list. Not only do the Saints have multiple weaknesses to address, but their current team structure leaves them with several questions about which weakness to address first. Regardless, the top pick would do wonders in helping them navigate their issues.
7) New York Giants
Record: 2-10
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 10% | Tankathon Order: 2
The New York Giants seemingly found their QB of the future in Jaxson Dart, even with how trying of a season it has been for the team. New York will not only be entering the offseason searching for a new head coach, but they’ll be given the possibility to pair Dart with a next-level offensive weapon if they do find themselves selecting No. 1 overall.
8) Los Angeles Rams (via ATL)
Falcons Record: 4-7
Kalshi Chance to Select No. 1: 2% | Tankathon Order: 11
The Los Angeles Rams may be the most fortunate team on this list. LA finds itself firmly in position to contend for a Super Bowl this season and somehow earn the top pick courtesy of the mistakes made in past years by the Atlanta Falcons.
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