NFL · 2 hours ago

NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Chiefs vs Jaguars

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

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NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Summer is gone, fall is here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 5!

Where to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Stadium: EverBank Stadium
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: KC -3.5 (-104) | Total: 45.5 (-108/-112)
Moneyline: KC -186| JAX +156

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This Monday evening will present a matchup of AFC sides that are currently trending in the right direction. With Duval County playing gracious host, the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) will welcome the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) for a primetime affair.

Both the Chiefs and Jags have high hopes for the 2025 NFL campaign. Two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are trying to scale the mountain once again, while Jacksonville likes its chances behind a ravaging defense.

The Jaguars have already forced 13 takeaways this year, which is the top mark in all of football. Incidentally, their nine interceptions also pace the NFL. Jacksonville will prioritize harassing Mahomes early and often. After all, the group from Duval has only allowed 18.0 PPG: fourth.

Speaking of points allowed, the Chiefs are ranked right behind the Jags in that department, giving up 19.0 PPG (fifth). However, KC is still looking for a consistent approach on offense. The Chiefs, scoring 24.3 PPG presently, rank middle-of-the-pack or worse in most offensive categories. They have shelled out just 110.5 rushing YPG, which lands 19th overall.

I believe Jacksonville’s offense is the unit that will swing the game. Unlike KC, the Jaguars have been committed to the ground game this season, running for 144.0 YPG (fourth). From there, Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing solidly (as exemplified by his 75.1 rating). With an offensive-minded head coach, a rowdy home crowd in Duval, and the right game plan, I think Jacksonville can stand tall versus Kansas City.

This game has to be personal for the Jaguars. During the 2023 playoffs, the Chiefs sent Jacksonville packing in a closely fought contest. With many of those same men still playing for the Jags, I think they leave it all out on the field. The spread is currently north of a field goal, so that entices me to take the Jaguars +3.5 on Monday Night Football (but I’m not mad about considering the upset SU).

Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (-118)

When referencing the totals market here, the combined number of 45.5 feels slightly inflated for these two rosters, which encourages me to target the under.

As noted above, both of these teams are ranked within the NFL’s top five in terms of points surrendered. The combined defensive averages there equate to only 37.0 PPG.

The collective cast on defense in this one boasts extreme talent. From Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Nick Bolton on one side, to Arik Armstead, Jourdan Lewis, and Travon Walker on the other, I believe the defenses are more athletic than the offenses.

On offense, Jacksonville will want to keep the ball away from Mahomes as much as possible. That will steer the Jags toward their ground game to control tempo, which should provide support for the under.