Men’s Olympic Semifinal Preview: USA vs Slovakia Best Bets

Team USA survived a quarterfinal scare, getting past Sweden in an overtime thriller. That sets up a semifinal showdown versus upstart Slovakia, with both teams looking to punch their way into the Gold Medal Game. The Americans enter the contest as hefty favorites. Still, their path to victory might not be as easy as the betting line implies. 

Check out our favorite wagers for Friday’s semifinal clash between the USA and Slovakia! 

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

Check out what bets we’re targeting on tonight’s slate!

Keep up to date with the medals in Milan with our Winter 2026 Medal Count Tracker and United States Medal Tracker. 

Best Bet: SVK +1.5 +184

Where to Watch (#3) Slovakia vs (#2) USA

• Arena: Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena
• Location: Milan
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Date: February 20, 2026
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET

SVK vs USA Betting Odds & Team Comparison

SVK vs USA Win Probability & Prediction Market Trends

Source: Kalshi Prediction Exchange

Team USA maintained its elite production in the quarterfinals, but its scoring slowed down tremendously. The Americans mustered just two goals, including an overtime marker at three-on-three. We’ve seen them dictate play in every game this tournament. Still, the Americans will have a hard time containing a relentless and puck-driven Slovakian team. 

Bettors took a stance against Slovakia in the quarterfinals. After opening as -125 favorites, the Slovaks were closer to a pick’em by puck drop. Undeterred, they put forth one of their best efforts of the Olympics, easily dispatching the Germans 6-2. In that contest, the Eastern Bloc country outshot their opponents 35-27, with all six of their goals coming at five-on-five. Moreover, they held Germany to just two goals on 27 shots, with only one of those tallies coming at five-on-five. 

That sets the Americans up for another raucous battle in Milan. As they typically do, they will try to push the pace offensively. In doing so, they’ll be playing into Slovakia’s strength. We’ve seen this team use its speed to its advantage, recording 16 goals across four tournament games. 

The over is a natural play. Both teams execute on offense and are comfortable trading chances with their opponents. While some may defer to the Americans, this price is too steep to pay. The Slovaks have more than enough firepower to keep pace with Team USA, and are worth a play on the puck line.

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Best Bet: Matt Boldy Anytime Goal Scorer +250

There is no shortage of firepower on Team USA. We’ve seen different players step up at various times throughout the Olympics. While the big dogs keep feasting, we’ve seen greater involvement from some lesser-known Americans. It’s Matt Boldy’s time to shine, and we’re backing the sniper to find the back of the net versus Slovakia. 

Boldy is coming off his best performance of the Olympic Games. He tallied four shots and an assist in the quarterfinals, playing 18:36 in the victory. Most of that time was spent in the attacking zone, where the scoring winger wreaked havoc on the Swedish defense. 

We’ve come to expect as much from Matt Boldy. So far, the Minnesota Wild winger has recorded 32 goals on 173 shots in the NHL, accumulating an elite 18.5% shooting percentage. He should have no problem maintaining that standard, as he spends time with some of Team USA’s best players and earns power-play time. 

Boldy was relentless in the quarters, and we’re anticipating a similar performance versus Slovakia. He’s a top-scoring candidate, and his odds of recording a goal vastly exceed the implied probability of the current betting odds. 

Men’s Olympic Semifinal Preview: USA vs Slovakia Best Bets

• Slovakia +1.5 +168
• Matt Boldy Any Time Goal Scorer +250

This is the Americans’ game to lose, but Slovakia won’t go down without a fight. We’re taking the Slovaks to cover the puck line, adding Matt Boldy as a premier value candidate as an anytime goal scorer.

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