2025 NBA Finals: Thunder at Pacers Game 6 SGP

The 2025 NBA Finals may tip off for the final time tonight as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to close out the resilient Indiana Pacers in Game 6 at Gainbridge FieldHouse. The Thunder enter as decisive favorites, laying 5.5 points on the spread with a -225 moneyline, while the over/under sits at 222.5. Indiana, priced at +188 to extend their playoff lives and push the series to a deciding Game 7 back in Oklahoma on Sunday.

OKC games have been good to us in these playoffs, hitting many Thunder same game parlays this postseason. Let’s go out on top on what I think will be the final night of the 2024-25 NBA season.

Here it goes.

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Player Props: Thunder | Pacers | Best Bets: OKC-IND

Game Information & Where to Watch

Location: Gainbridge FieldHouse – Indianapolis, Indiana
Where to Watch: ABC
Where to Stream: Fubo, ABC.com, ESPN App
Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Thunder -5.5 | Total: 222.5
Moneyline: Thunder -225 | Pacers +188

Leg 1: Thunder Alt Spread -2.5 (-178)

It will not be an easy out for the Thunder, with the Pacers backed flush against the wall in front of their raucous fans in a place where Indiana has defended well in this postseason. The Pacers have won three of their past four at Gainbridge, with that lone loss, very close to the spread in Game 4. Indiana has done well against the line in these playoffs, covering regular,y and when they miss the spread, it’s not by much. This is a big reason why I prefer going the alternate here, so a single possession OKC win still cashes our opening leg, rather than mess with a line hovering around six.

Oklahoma City has proven all season and throughout the playoffs that they are the best team in the NBA this year. They almost always answer a loss with a win, and make necessary adjustments, both on the fly and game to game.

The Thunder’s defense has been an unheralded calling card all season. It’s easy to lose sight of how strong this side is defensively when they routinely drop 130 on the best teams in the playoffs. That said, they haven’t strayed from that D identity. I expected OKC to continue to be aggressive in the same fashion that led them to an NBA-best 17.2 forced turnovers per game this postseason. This aggression paid off in Game 5 with the Thunder scoring 32 off of 23 Indiana cough-ups.

With the Pacers banged up in the backcourt, pressuring the ball should be a major priority for Mark Daigneault’s bunch, and it should lead them to a similar path as the win on Monday. If OKC can get some easy fastbreak points off turnovers early, they can take the Indiana crowd out of this one and impose their will throughout the night.

Give me the Thunder in a bit of a tight one.

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Leg 2: Tyrese Haliburton Under 13.5 Pts (-136)

Tyrese Haliburton is far from 100% at the moment. It was easy to see, late in Game 5, that the Pacers’ star guard just couldn’t get downhill and was not nearly as explosive, while dealing with this calf strain. It’s something that has been bothering Haliburton for a while, and it really came to a head on Monday, when the banged-up ball-handler had zero field goals in 34 minutes. The former Sacramento King ended up with just four points and was rarely aggressive on offense, mostly hanging around the perimeter.

While it looks like Haliburton will suit up tonight, if not for pride alone, it’s pretty clear he won’t be at his best. This scoring prop in itself is an indication of tempered expectations, as Haliburton’s scoring number is usually set at around 17.5. Not only must his effectiveness be questioned, but his volume as well. There’s a good possibility head coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t like what he sees with his starting point guard’s mobility and explosiveness and chooses to sit him down in favor of TJ McConnell. McConnell is no Tyrese by any stretch, but if Haliburton can only give 60%, the veteran backup is probably the better option.

Carlisle isn’t the only one aware of Haliburton’s limitations. A physical defense like the Thunder is not going to give him any breaks, and a push and shove here and there can only hurt No. 0’s confidence in this elimination game.

While I think Haliburton plays, I think his leash is short and even when on the court, his abilities limited with the nagging calf issue. Feeling confident with a low-scoring performance from the Pacers franchise player.

Leg 3: Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 Threes (-188)

Maybe one of the best-kept secrets on the offensive end in this NBA Finals has been Aaron Nesmith. The Pacers’ swingman has been shooting the lights out in this series, going 14-of-27 from beyond the arc. That’s right, Nesmith is hitting more than half of his shots from deep. While the former Vanderbilt Commodore is often relied on for his defense on the perimeter, this kind of production on the offensive end can’t be ignored.

Nesmith’s sharp shooting cannot only be linked to the Finals, as the 25-year-old has been doing it all postseason. The former Boston Celtic shot 53% from beyond the arc, hitting 2.7 per game in the ECF against the New York Knicks. Before that, Nesmith nailed 2.6 threes per game on 45% shooting against the Cleveland Cavaliers, which followed 52% shooting from deep, where he hit 2.8 triples a night in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Throughout these playoffs, Nesmith has hit 57 three-pointers on 50.4% shooting. He leads all players this postseason by a landslide, with the next closest player, his teammate Tyrese Haliburton, hitting 48. With Haliburton limited and the Pacers facing elimination, there is no better time to lean on Nesmith from deep, in a game Indiana may have to shoot themselves back into.

While I like the over on Nesmith’s 11.5 points prop (+102), especially with plus money, the numbers show that the surer shot is him dialing it from deep at least twice tonight.

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