Daily NBA Best Bets Against the Spread

Eight games on the board today, and the slate has a very specific personality: a couple of **big road favorites** (MIN -10, OKC -9.5, MIL -6.5), a couple of **short road favorites** (DEN -2.5), and one of my favorite betting ingredients – **fatigue spots hiding inside “normal" lines** (Miami on **0 days rest** and the back end of a B2B; Brooklyn in a **3-in-4** high-frequency window). I’ve gone through every matchup, and two games separate from the pack where the data stacks cleanly on one side.

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3-Unit Lock

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic

Where to Watch IND vs. ORL
– Stadium: Kia Center
– Location: Orlando, FL
– Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
– Date: 2026-01-04
– Time: 03:00 PM ET

IND vs. ORL Betting Odds
– Spread: Orlando Magic -6.5 (-110) | Indiana Pacers +6.5 (-110)
– Moneyline: Orlando Magic -240 | Indiana Pacers +198

THE PICK
Indiana Pacers +6.5 (3 units)

THE CASE
I’m taking the points with Indiana because the market is pricing Orlando like a team in form, and the last 10 says the opposite. The Magic are **2-8 ATS in their last 10** with a **4-6 record**, and that’s the kind of profile I love fading when they’re asked to win by margin. Meanwhile, Indiana is a gross **0-10 straight up** in their last 10, but they’ve still managed **4-6 ATS** – and that matters here because we’re not asking them to win, we’re asking them to hang around. Add in the most important context: these teams literally just played on **12/31** in Indiana, Orlando won **112-110**, and **Indiana covered +4.5** in that game. Now the number is **+6.5** with no meaningful schedule edge either way (both teams on **1 day rest**, both traveling into Orlando – IND traveled **821.9 miles**, ORL traveled **987.2 miles**). So what changed to justify a bigger spread? Nothing I can see in this dataset. If Orlando is going to keep cashing tickets as a favorite, they need to stop bleeding ATS first – until then, I’ll gladly take the extra two points.

NBA Power Rankings Updated: Rating All 30 Teams Today

2-Unit Play

New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat

Where to Watch NOP vs. MIA
– Stadium: Kaseya Center
– Location: Miami, FL
– Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
– Date: 2026-01-04
– Time: 06:00 PM ET

NOP vs. MIA Betting Odds
– Spread: Miami Heat -8.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +8.0 (-110)
– Moneyline: Miami Heat -314 | New Orleans Pelicans +250

NOP vs. MIA Kalshi Odds
– Chance: New Orleans Pelicans 28% | Miami Heat 73%

THE PICK
New Orleans Pelicans +8 (2 units)

THE CASE
This is a classic “I’ll take the points and let the schedule do the work" spot. Miami is on the **back end of a back-to-back** with **0 days rest** (played **1/3**, now again **1/4**) and it’s not just a B2B – it’s also a **3 games in 4 days** high-frequency stretch. The schedule performance data basically screams “tight margins": on the **back end of B2Bs**, Miami is **11-10** with an **avg margin of -0.81**, and in **3-in-4** spots they’re **15-15** with an **avg margin of -0.3**. That’s not a profile I want to lay **-8** with, even if Miami wins. On the other side, New Orleans is sitting on **1 day rest** and comes in with a perfectly playable **5-5 ATS** last 10. And if you want the historical matchup angle, Miami has dominated the series straight up (**9-1** last 10 H2H) – but that’s exactly why I’m getting a tax on the number. I don’t need the Pelicans to flip the result; I need them to keep it within two possessions against a Miami team that, in these fatigue windows, has been living in coin-flip margins.

Card Recap
– Pacers +6.5 (3 units)
– Pelicans +8 (2 units)

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