Daily NBA Injury Report and Analysis for Sunday, January 18
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Ja Morant being listed out is the early-slate headline, especially after a news item on January 17 said Morant was expected to play in the London Game. With Memphis already sitting at 17-23, the Grizzlies are again forced into a different offensive shape against an Orlando team missing a key perimeter piece in Jalen Suggs.
Across the six-game slate, the most actionable injury situations are in Denver (Nikola Jokic still out), Los Angeles (multiple rotation pieces with Luka Doncic and Deandre Ayton day-to-day), and Toronto (Immanuel Quickley questionable with RJ Barrett out).
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Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis has Ja Morant listed out, and the season-long splits show a real drop-off in results: the Grizzlies are 6-12 this season with Morant (33.3% win rate) versus 11-11 without him (50.0%). That is not the typical “star out equals worse" profile, and it matters for bettors because it suggests the market can over-penalize Memphis on Morant absences. The bigger on-court concern is frontcourt depth with Zach Edey still out, since Memphis is 7-4 with Edey (63.6%) and 10-19 without him (34.5%) this season.
For Orlando, Jalen Suggs is out, and the Magic are 13-9 with him (59.1%) versus 9-9 without him (50.0%). Suggs’ two-way role is the key loss here, but the more extreme split belongs to Jett Howard (out), where Orlando is 7-10 with Howard (41.2%) and 15-8 without him (65.2%). That split is notable, but Howard’s 4.6 points per game profile makes it less predictive than Suggs’ absence.
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Brooklyn’s biggest absence is Michael Porter Jr. (expected to rest again tonight). The Nets are 12-20 with Porter (37.5%) and 0-7 without him (0.0%) this season, a massive swing that should keep bettors cautious about backing Brooklyn until he returns. Porter is also producing 25.8 points per game with a 30.3% usage rate, so this is both a volume scoring and shot-creation hit.
On the Chicago side, Josh Giddey (hamstring) is listed doubtful. Chicago is 15-15 with Giddey (50.0%) and 4-7 without him (36.4%) this season, and his 19.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game profile is the type that can change both tempo and assist markets. If Giddey sits, the Bulls’ creation burden concentrates quickly, and it is one of the cleaner “status-dependent" games on the slate.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets
New Orleans is without Herbert Jones (ankle), and the Pelicans are 7-16 with him (30.4%) versus 3-18 without him (14.3%) this season. That is a meaningful defensive and lineup-stability loss against a Houston team that is top-tier by net rating (6.4) and already plays in a high-frequency scheduling spot.
Houston has Tari Eason out, but the Rockets’ season splits are basically neutral: 13-8 with Eason (61.9%) and 11-7 without him (61.1%). This looks more like a rotation and matchup loss than a team-level downgrade. The injury report also lists Fred VanVleet out, but he has not played this season, so his absence is not a current betting variable in this dataset.
Charlotte Hornets @ Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic is still out, and Denver’s splits are surprisingly steady: the Nuggets are 22-10 with Jokic (68.8%) and 7-3 without him (70.0%) this season. Even with that record stability, Jokic’s individual production (29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 10.9 assists per game) is so large that prop markets and offensive role distribution still change dramatically when he sits.
The more fragile piece for Denver is the frontcourt layering, with Jonas Valanciunas (out) also off the board. Denver is 23-9 with Valanciunas (71.9%) and 6-4 without him (60.0%). Add in Cameron Johnson (out), and the Nuggets are missing another high-impact rotation forward (Denver is 20-8 with Johnson and 9-5 without him). For Charlotte, Mason Plumlee is out, but the Hornets are 2-6 with him (25.0%) and 13-21 without him (38.2%), so the team-level split does not suggest a major downgrade.
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is without Keegan Murray, and the Kings are 4-15 with Murray (21.1%) versus 8-15 without him (34.8%) this season. Like the Morant split earlier, it is counterintuitive, but it still signals that Sacramento has at least found workable lineup solutions without him. Keon Ellis (knee) is questionable, but his impact level is tagged negative, so this is more of a depth and perimeter-defense note than a market mover.
Portland’s most impactful current absence is Deni Avdija (out). The Trail Blazers are 19-20 with Avdija (48.7%) and 2-1 without him (66.7%), but the sample without him is small. Avdija’s production is not small (26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists per game with a 29.0% usage rate), so even if the record has held, the way Portland generates offense is likely to shift.
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
This game has the widest range of outcomes based on late statuses. Luka Doncic is day-to-day, and the Lakers are 19-12 with him (61.3%) versus 4-4 without him (50.0%) this season. Austin Reaves is out, and Los Angeles is 14-8 with Reaves (63.6%) versus 9-8 without him (52.9%). Deandre Ayton is also day-to-day, and the Lakers are 21-14 with Ayton (60.0%) versus 2-2 without him (50.0%). If Doncic and Ayton both sit, it is not just one missing star, it is multiple lineup pillars at once.
Toronto is already without RJ Barrett, and the Raptors are 16-7 with Barrett (69.6%) versus 9-11 without him (45.0%). Immanuel Quickley (back) is questionable, and Toronto is 24-16 with him (60.0%) versus 1-2 without him (33.3%). With Barrett already ruled out, Quickley’s status becomes the swing factor for both Toronto’s ball-handling and how stable their half-court offense looks.
Statistical Impact Analysis
The biggest season-long win-rate swings tied to a single player on this slate are Michael Porter Jr. for Brooklyn (37.5% with him, 0.0% without), Zach Edey for Memphis (63.6% with him, 34.5% without), and RJ Barrett for Toronto (69.6% with him, 45.0% without).
The most important “questionable-to-watch" split is Immanuel Quickley, where Toronto is 60.0% with him and 33.3% without him, albeit in a small sample without.
Betting And Fantasy Implications
Bettors should treat Nets-Bulls and Raptors-Lakers as the two games most likely to move based on final availability, with Josh Giddey (hamstring) doubtful and Immanuel Quickley (back) questionable carrying clear team-level win-rate differences. In Denver, Jokic being out does not show a negative win-rate split in this dataset, but his absence still tends to reshape prop markets because of his extreme points, rebounds, and assists production.
Players To Monitor
- Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
- Keon Ellis, Sacramento Kings
- Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
- Jamison Battle, Toronto Raptors
- Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
- Deandre Ayton, Los Angeles Lakers
- Marcus Smart, Los Angeles Lakers
- Santi Aldama, Memphis Grizzlies
- Moussa Diabate, Charlotte Hornets
- Robert Williams III, Portland Trail Blazers
The Betting Edge
The cleanest injury leverage spots are Brooklyn’s offense without Michael Porter Jr. and Toronto’s backcourt if Immanuel Quickley cannot go with RJ Barrett already out. Keep an eye on the Lakers’ final availability, because Luka Doncic and Deandre Ayton statuses can change both the side and the player prop ecosystem quickly.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 18.
