Daily NBA Injury Report and Analysis For Tuesday, January 6
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest injury domino on Tuesday’s six-game slate is Donovan Mitchell remaining out for Cleveland. Mitchell’s 29.8 PPG and 33.0% usage are the type of absence that can reshape both pricing and game script, especially with Cleveland also carrying day-to-day tags on Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade. The other headline is San Antonio listing Victor Wembanyama out, removing a 24.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.9 BPG centerpiece from one of the league’s best teams.
Across the slate, several teams are dealing with multi-player absences that matter to the market: the Los Angeles Lakers are still without Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura, and Orlando is missing both Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. Below is the impact, game by game, with an emphasis on what changes for bettors and fantasy managers.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
Cleveland’s offense has to be remapped without Donovan Mitchell (Out, Jan 8). The Cavaliers are 19-15 this season with Mitchell (55.9% win rate, +2.8 net rating) versus 1-2 without him (33.3%, -2.7). That is a meaningful swing in both win equity and efficiency, and it puts more creation pressure on Darius Garland and Evan Mobley in a matchup where Indiana’s defense has struggled overall (Pacers allow 119.7 PPG).
The secondary swing is Jarrett Allen (Day-To-Day, Jan 6). Cleveland is 14-11 with Allen (56.0%, +2.6) and 6-6 without (50.0%, +1.8). If Allen sits, the Cavaliers lose a stabilizer on the glass and at the rim, which can matter even against an Indiana frontcourt already missing Isaiah Jackson (Out) and Obi Toppin (Out). Indiana’s own injury list is more about depth scoring with Bennedict Mathurin out (17.8 PPG), and the Pacers’ season-long profile is already poor, but the Mitchell absence is the driver that can keep this spread from inflating too far toward Cleveland.
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards
Orlando is short-handed in the backcourt and on the wing with Jalen Suggs (Out, Jan 7) and Franz Wagner (Out, Jan 7). Suggs has a clearer team-level impact in the splits: the Magic are 13-9 with him (59.1%, +2.7) and 6-7 without (46.2%, -3.2). That drop is notable against a Washington team that plays fast enough to create extra possessions, even if the Wizards’ defense has been a problem (124.4 opp PPG).
Washington’s absences are concentrated on the wing with Kyshawn George (Out), Corey Kispert (Out), and Cam Whitmore (Out). The splits show Washington has actually won more often without George (4-3 without, 57.1%) than with him (5-22 with, 18.5%), but the net rating is still negative in both samples and the Wizards’ baseline is a bottom-tier defense. For bettors, the key is whether Orlando can generate enough perimeter creation without Suggs and Franz, because Washington’s injury list reduces spacing and shot volume, which can drag the Wizards’ offensive ceiling down.
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
San Antonio’s headline is Victor Wembanyama (Out, Jan 6). Interestingly, the Spurs’ season splits are flat in win rate with him (15-6, 71.4%) versus without (10-4, 71.4%), but the net rating does dip from +7.2 to +3.1. Even if the Spurs have survived in the standings without him, removing 24.3 points, 11.7 boards, and elite rim protection changes how opponents attack the paint and how San Antonio closes defensive possessions.
Memphis has the more volatile situation because Ja Morant is Day-To-Day (Jan 6) and the Grizzlies are also without Zach Edey (Out, Jan 9). Morant’s splits are stark: Memphis is 6-12 with him (33.3%, -2.3) and 9-8 without (52.9%, +0.4). That is counterintuitive, but it is what the season sample says, and it matters for the market because Morant’s name value can still move numbers even when the on-court results have not followed. Edey’s absence is a clearer on-court hit: Memphis is 7-4 with him (63.6%, +5.6) and 8-16 without (33.3%, -4.0). If Morant sits and Edey remains out, Memphis is missing both a primary initiator and a high-impact interior finisher, which can push this matchup toward San Antonio’s half-court stability even without Wembanyama.
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami is hopeful for Tyler Herro’s return and is without Terry Rozier (Out, Feb 20), and it also has day-to-day tags on Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic. Herro’s splits are unusual: the Heat are 3-3 with him (50.0%, +0.3) and 17-13 without (56.7%, +4.2). The market still has to respect the shot-making and spacing Herro provides (23.2 PPG, 40.5% from three), but the team-level results suggest Miami has found workable offensive structures without him, likely leaning more into Bam Adebayo and wing scoring.
Minnesota’s injury report is lighter, with Terrence Shannon Jr. out (rotation-level) and no major starter listed out. The Wolves’ baseline is strong (23-13, +4.9 net rating), and this is a spot where bettors should be sensitive to Miami’s day-to-day statuses more than Herro alone. If Jaquez and Jovic are limited or out, Miami’s forward depth and secondary playmaking take a hit, which matters against Minnesota’s size and defensive profile.
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
The Lakers remain without Austin Reaves (Out, Jan 26) and Rui Hachimura (Out, Jan 9). Reaves is the bigger offensive absence by role and production (26.4 PPG, 6.4 APG), but the team splits provided are tight: the Lakers are 14-8 with him (63.6%, -0.8) and 7-3 without (70.0%, 0.0). Hachimura’s splits are more negative: 18-8 with (69.2%, +0.3) versus 3-3 without (50.0%, -4.0). With Luka Doncic and LeBron James both in the projected starting lineup, the Lakers can still generate elite creation, but the missing pieces show up in lineup flexibility and secondary scoring, which can matter more on the road.
New Orleans is missing Herbert Jones (Out, Jan 6) and Dejounte Murray (Out, Jan 13). Jones is the key defensive absence, and the Pelicans’ splits with him are dramatic: 7-15 with (31.8%, -6.4) versus 1-14 without (6.7%, -10.3). That is a major drop in win rate and defensive functionality, and it is a clear signal for bettors that New Orleans has struggled to stay competitive without its top perimeter stopper. Against a Lakers team built around high-end creators, Jones being out is the type of absence that can push both spread and team total expectations toward Los Angeles.
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is without Domantas Sabonis (Out, Jan 18) and Keegan Murray (Out, Jan 9). Even with both out, the splits show Sacramento has been poor either way: 2-9 with Sabonis (18.2%, -11.8) and 6-19 without (24.0%, -12.0). Murray’s splits are similarly bleak (4-15 with, 21.1% versus 4-13 without, 23.5%). The actionable takeaway is less about “drop-off" and more about role consolidation: with Sabonis out, the Kings’ offense has to run through their perimeter trio in the projected lineup (Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan), which can increase usage and assist chances but also increase turnover risk and lower shot quality.
Dallas is without Kyrie Irving (Out, Feb 12) and Dereck Lively II (Out), with P.J. Washington listed Day-To-Day. The only clean split here is Washington: Dallas is 9-21 with him (30.0%, -4.7) and 4-2 without (66.7%, -0.3), another counterintuitive result that suggests the “without" sample is small and likely opponent-driven. Still, if Washington sits, Dallas loses a two-way forward who can soak up minutes against Sacramento’s wings. With Anthony Davis in the projected starting lineup for Dallas, the interior matchup becomes the focal point against a Kings team missing its primary hub big.
Statistical Impact Analysis
The largest win-rate swing on the slate belongs to New Orleans with Herbert Jones: 31.8% with him versus 6.7% without him this season. Cleveland’s drop without Donovan Mitchell is also significant, falling from 55.9% with him to 33.3% without. Memphis’ splits with and without Zach Edey are a major signal for interior performance, moving from 63.6% with him to 33.3% without.
Betting and Fantasy Implications
Bettors should expect the market to price Cleveland more cautiously without Mitchell, and to react sharply if Jarrett Allen is ruled out closer to tip. Spurs-Grizzlies is the slate’s biggest “status sensitivity" game because Morant’s availability and Memphis’ already-proven Edey split can change both side and total assumptions quickly. For fantasy managers, the clearest opportunity pockets are usage consolidation spots: Cleveland’s primary creators without Mitchell, and Sacramento’s perimeter scorers without Sabonis.
Players to Monitor (Questionable/Day-To-Day)
– Jarrett Allen – Cavaliers
– Dean Wade – Cavaliers
– Ja Morant – Grizzlies
– Harrison Ingram – Spurs
– Jaime Jaquez Jr. – Heat
– Nikola Jovic – Heat
– Keshad Johnson – Heat
– P.J. Washington – Mavericks
– Rocco Zikarsky – Timberwolves
Closing
Tuesday’s slate is defined by star absences that do not all show up the same way in season splits, which is where bettors can find value by separating name recognition from team-level results. The two updates most likely to move numbers late are Jarrett Allen’s status for Cleveland and Ja Morant’s status for Memphis. The market’s cleanest signal is still New Orleans without Herbert Jones, a profile that has consistently failed to hold up on either end.
