Monday’s NBA Injury Report and Analysis
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest NBA injury headline on Monday’s slate is in Philadelphia, where Denver will again be without Nikola Jokic (Out, February 1) in a marquee road spot. Jokic’s absence has been a season-defining swing for the Nuggets, forcing the market to price Denver as a very different team on both ends of the court.
Across eight games, the most impactful situations cluster around a few teams dealing with star-level absences or thin frontcourts: Denver (Jokic), Houston (Alperen Sengun), Atlanta (Trae Young), and a handful of teams with multiple rotation pieces either out or truly questionable.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons
New York is without Josh Hart (Out, January 11), a high-impact connector whose absence has shown up in the Knicks’ results. The Knicks are 19-9 this season with Hart (67.9% win rate) versus 4-3 without him (57.1%), and the net rating flips from +7.1 with Hart to -1.1 without. That is a meaningful downgrade in rebounding and secondary playmaking around Jalen Brunson, especially against a Detroit team that plays fast enough to punish transition coverage lapses.
Detroit’s injury list is longer, but the market impact is more nuanced. Jalen Duren (Out, January 10) and Tobias Harris (Out, January 17) are both tagged as negative impacts in the data, and Detroit’s splits support that. The Pistons are 21-9 with Duren (70.0%) and 4-0 without (100.0%), and 15-8 with Harris (65.2%) versus 10-1 without (90.9%). Bettors should treat those as “fit and matchup" signals rather than pure player value. Still, it reinforces that Detroit’s current structure, without those pieces, has been effective, with Cade Cunningham driving a more perimeter-oriented attack.
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
Jaylen Brown is already operating as the primary scoring engine without Jayson Tatum (Out, April 11), and Boston’s offense is likely to run even more through Brown and Derrick White in half-court creation.
Chicago is missing multiple rotation pieces, including Coby White (Out, January 5) and Jalen Smith (Out, January 7, critical). Smith’s splits are the loudest: the Bulls are 17-13 with him (56.7%) and 0-5 without (0.0%), with net rating dropping from -2.0 to -12.8. That is the type of absence that can quietly matter more than a single perimeter scorer because it impacts rim protection, rebounding, and lineup stability.
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
Atlanta is without Trae Young (Out, January 7), and the season splits are extreme. The Hawks are 15-11 with Young (57.7%) versus 2-8 without (20.0%), and the net rating collapses from +1.4 to -7.7. That is a significant downgrade in shot quality and late-clock offense, and it places more onus on Jalen Johnson and the secondary ball-handlers in the projected starting group.
Toronto is missing Jakob Poeltl (Out, January 7), a moderate-impact center. The Raptors are 13-8 with Poeltl (61.9%) versus 8-7 without (53.3%), with net rating moving from +3.0 to 0.0. Against an Atlanta team already missing its offensive engine, the matchup implication is that Toronto can survive the Poeltl absence if it wins the perimeter battle and forces Atlanta into half-court possessions where Young’s playmaking is most missed.
Charlotte Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
This game hinges on availability questions for Charlotte’s wings. Brandon Miller (Day-To-Day, January 5) and Kon Knueppel (Day-To-Day, January 5) both carry meaningful offensive roles, and Miller’s splits are especially sharp: Charlotte is 9-10 with him (47.4%) versus 3-13 without (18.8%), with net rating dropping from +0.4 to -6.2. If Miller sits, the Hornets’ ability to keep pace with OKC’s elite offense becomes a significant concern.
Oklahoma City is also dealing with frontcourt absences, with Isaiah Hartenstein (Out, January 5) and Jaylin Williams (Out, January 5). Hartenstein’s splits are notable: OKC is 19-5 with him (79.2%) versus 11-1 without (91.7%), and the net rating actually improves from +12.3 to +19.6 without him. That suggests OKC’s small-ball and spacing lineups have been crushing, and the market should be careful about over-penalizing OKC for missing a center, even on a back-to-back. The bigger betting question is whether Charlotte has enough healthy scoring to threaten OKC’s margin.
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets
Houston is without Alperen Sengun (Out, January 7), and the splits show a real but not catastrophic drop. The Rockets are 18-9 with Sengun (66.7%) versus 3-2 without (60.0%), with net rating sliding from +9.3 to +4.8. The bigger swing may be stylistic: without Sengun’s hub playmaking, Houston’s offense can become more perimeter-driven, increasing variance and altering total expectations depending on pace and turnover profile.
Steven Adams is listed day-to-day (January 5), with a critical tag, and his splits are dramatic: Houston is 18-7 with Adams (72.0%) versus 3-4 without (42.9%), with net rating moving from +10.4 to +2.1. If Adams sits alongside Sengun, Houston’s interior rebounding and physicality take a hit, which matters against a Phoenix team that can punish second-chance points and control tempo.
Phoenix is without Grayson Allen (Out, January 5). The Suns are 9-9 with Allen (50.0%) versus 11-5 without (68.8%), and net rating improves from -1.2 to +4.8 without him. That points to lineup fit and rotation staggering rather than Allen being “unimportant," but it does suggest the market should not automatically shade Phoenix down for his absence.
Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Denver’s injury situation is the slate’s most important. Nikola Jokic is out (February 11, critical), and the Nuggets are 22-10 with him (68.8%) versus 1-2 without (33.3%), with net rating dropping from +7.2 to -4.7. Denver is also without Jonas Valanciunas (Out, February 11, critical) and Cameron Johnson (Out, January 22, critical), which compounds the problem by removing both frontcourt depth and a key floor-spacing wing. This is a very different Nuggets team, and bettors should expect more Jamal Murray usage and more volatility in Denver’s half-court efficiency.
Philadelphia has Joel Embiid listed day-to-day (January 5). The 76ers are 9-7 with Embiid (56.2%) versus 10-6 without (62.5%), with net rating moving from +1.7 to +2.8 without. That split suggests Philadelphia has been able to function without him, mainly because Tyrese Maxey’s role scales, but the matchup still changes materially if Embiid plays because it forces Denver’s Jokic-less frontcourt into foul trouble and rebounding stress. Kelly Oubre Jr. is out (January 7), which trims wing scoring depth, but the market will price this game primarily off Embiid’s status and Denver’s missing MVP.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
This game has relatively clean injury impact compared to the rest of the slate. The Clippers are without Bogdan Bogdanovic (Out, January 7) and Derrick Jones Jr. (Out, February 19), which reduces shooting and wing defense around the James Harden and Kawhi Leonard core. Golden State’s listed absences (Seth Curry, LJ Cryer) are not accompanied by impact classifications in the data, and the projected starters remain intact, so this matchup is more about form and matchup than injury-driven pricing.
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is missing multiple guards and wings, including Jerami Grant (Out, January 7) and Jrue Holiday (Out, January 7). Grant’s absence has coincided with worse results: Portland is 11-15 with him (42.3%) versus 5-4 without (55.6%), but the net rating is similar (-3.0 with, -2.8 without), suggesting the bigger effect is on lineup flexibility and late-game shot creation. With Scoot Henderson also out (January 17), Portland’s offense is heavily concentrated in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe, which can raise both usage and turnover risk.
Utah has multiple frontcourt issues, with Walker Kessler out for the season and Jusuf Nurkic day-to-day (January 5). Nurkic’s splits show Utah is 10-19 with him (34.5%) versus 2-3 without (40.0%), with the net rating improving from -7.8 to -3.0 without him. If Nurkic sits, Utah may play smaller and faster, which can push totals upward, but it also risks getting punished on the glass by Portland’s Donovan Clingan.
Statistical Impact Analysis
The most significant season swing on the slate belongs to Atlanta without Trae Young: a 57.7% win rate with him versus 20.0% without, and a net rating that moves from +1.4 to -7.7. Denver without Nikola Jokic is similarly stark, dropping from 68.8% to 33.3% with a net rating from +7.2 to -4.7. Chicago without Jalen Smith has been a collapse point, going from 56.7% with him to 0-5 without, with net rating falling from -2.0 to -12.8.
Betting and Fantasy Implications
The market’s most significant sensitivity points are Joel Embiid (PHI) and the cluster of day-to-day wings for Charlotte, since those statuses can swing both spread and total. Houston’s center rotation is the other key lever, with Steven Adams’s availability especially important given the 72.0% win rate with him versus 42.9% without. For fantasy managers, the clearest usage-consolidation spots are Denver’s offense without Jokic and Atlanta’s offense without Young, where primary creators and high-minute starters typically enjoy the best role stability.
Players to Monitor (Questionable/GTD)
Joel Embiid (76ers)
Steven Adams (Rockets)
Luke Kennard (Hawks)
Brandon Miller (Hornets)
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
Tidjane Salaun (Hornets)
Moussa Diabate (Hornets)
Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz)
Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers)
Closing
Monday’s slate is defined by two star-absence environments that consistently move numbers: Denver without Jokic and Atlanta without Young. The final hour before tip is about confirmation, especially Embiid and Houston’s center rotation, because those are the statuses most likely to create actionable line value once the market has to commit.
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