NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Friday, January 9
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Ten NBA games on the board tonight, and the slate has a definite personality: a couple of big home favorites (Boston Celtics -10, Golden State Warriors -14.5), a few short road favorites (Philadelphia 76ers -3.5, Los Angeles Clippers -4.5, Houston Rockets -6.5), and a whole lot of schedule noise hiding in plain sight. We’ve got front-end back-to-backs (Boston, Los Angeles Clippers), multiple teams in high-frequency stretches (Orlando, Washington, New Orleans), and some travel spots that matter more than the market wants to admit.
I went through every matchup, and two games separated from the pack because the data stacks cleanly on one side. Not “I can talk myself into it" clean – numbers, context, and price all pointing in the same direction.
LOCK (3 units)
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Matchup
Arena: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Toronto vs. Boston Betting Odds
Spread: Boston Celtics -10.0 (-110) | Toronto Raptors +10.0 (-111)
Moneyline: Boston Celtics -369 | Toronto Raptors +294
Toronto vs. Boston Kalshi Odds
Chance: Toronto Raptors 25% | Boston Celtics 75%
THE PICK: Boston Celtics -10.0 (3 units)
I’m laying it with Boston because the profile screams “get right and bury them." The Celtics are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten with an 8-2 straight-up run, while Toronto is a flat 5-5 against the spread in their previous ten, and that’s before we talk context. Boston is at home with zero travel (TD Garden to TD Garden), and they’ve been a monster in this exact scheduling pocket: on the front end of back-to-backs, Boston is 14-5 with a +7.68 average margin and 117.21 points per game since the 2025 season. That matters because the market loves to get cute with “they’ve got a game tomorrow," but Boston has historically treated the first night like a business trip. Add in the stand angle: Boston is in Game 3 of 4 on a home stand, and in home stands of four-plus games, they’re 15-5 (75%) since 2025, and you’ve got a team that tends to settle in and start rolling people. Toronto, meanwhile, is traveling 720.7 miles into this building, and the head-to-head is basically a Boston receipt: the home team is 9-1 in the last ten matchups, and Boston just beat Toronto 112-96 on December 20. This number is considerable, but it’s big for a reason – and Boston has been covering big numbers lately anyway (again: 7 covers in the last ten). I’m not overthinking it.
STRONG PLAY (2 units)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic Matchup
Arena: Kia Center
Location: Orlando, FL
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Philadelphia vs. Orlando Betting Odds
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (-110) | Orlando Magic +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers -164 | Orlando Magic +137
Philadelphia vs. Orlando Kalshi Odds
Chance: Philadelphia 76ers 59% | Orlando Magic 41%
THE PICK: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (2 units)
This is a classic “trust the better team trend-wise, and don’t ignore the matchup history" spot. Philadelphia is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten, while Orlando is 3-7 against the spread in their last ten, a meaningful gap when the number is only -3.5. The head-to-head backs it up: Philadelphia has seven covers over the previous ten meetings, and Orlando’s overall record in that span is 4-6. Schedule-wise, both teams are on one day of rest, but Orlando is flagged as a high-frequency team (three games in the last four days). While Orlando has actually performed well historically in that bucket (22-10, 68.75% win rate in qualifying games since 2025), I’m not paying a premium for it when the current form against the spread is this shaky. Philadelphia’s travel is also totally manageable (861.0 miles from Wells Fargo Center to Kia Center), and they’re stepping into Game 1 of a three-game road stand, which is typically where you get the most “locked in" version of a team before legs become a story. Bottom line: the market is asking Philly to win by two possessions, and the combination of better recent spread results (6-4 vs. 3-7) plus consistent head-to-head covering (seven of ten) makes this a price I’m willing to lay.
The Betting Edge
- Boston Celtics -10.0 (3 units)
- Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (2 units)
Two bets, two different games, two spots where the data actually lines up instead of fighting itself. Ride with me or fade me – either way, we’re not guessing tonight.
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