Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Sunday, January 18
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Sunday’s slate brings six games, including an early tip in London and a couple of back-to-back spots that can quietly swing prop efficiency. After scanning every market in the data, the best edges are showing up where recent hit rates align with opponent history and clear role-based production.
The goal is simple: target lines that are still lagging behind what the player has been doing lately, especially when the matchup data supports it. These four props check multiple boxes – form, splits, and opponent context – without needing a perfect game script.
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Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Sunday, January 18
Franz Wagner Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Orlando Magic @ Memphis Grizzlies Matchup
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- Arena: The O2 Arena
- Location: London, UK
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 18, 2026
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
Odds: Consensus -112 | Best Price -105 @ BetMGM
Franz Wagner enters tonight’s matchup with one of the cleanest profiles on the slate: he’s cleared 26.5 points + rebounds + assists in 90% of his last ten games and 87.5% on the season, with a 32.3 season average that sits well above the line. The opponent history is also strong – Wagner has hit in four of his last five against Memphis (80%). Add in a meaningful home/away split (season 34.3 at home vs 29.8 away) and a tight range outcome (floor 26.0, ceiling 37.0), and this number still looks a touch light for his current role.
Trey Murphy Over 4.5 Rebounds
New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets Matchup
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- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 18, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Trey Murphy is a rebound prop worth paying for right now: he’s over 4.5 boards in 90% of his last ten and 75% on the season, with a 6.2 season average that clears this line by a wide margin. The floor/ceiling profile supports it too (floor 4.75, ceiling 8.0), which matters on a modest number like this. Even with only a 50% hit rate in eight games versus Houston, the matchup still grades well: the Rockets rank 28th in rebounds allowed for this slot (allowed 4.1 vs league average 4.5), giving Murphy a friendly environment to keep the streak going.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls Matchup
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- Arena: United Center
- Location: Chicago, IL
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 18, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Odds: Consensus -109 | Best Price -104 @ DraftKings
Ayo Dosunmu has been a steady PRA target, clearing 19.5 in 90% of his last ten and 80% of his last five, with a 20.6 season average that’s still above the number. The opponent history is a plus: Dosunmu has hit this line in four of his last six against Brooklyn (66.67%). The range is also workable (floor 13.0, ceiling 27.0), and with both teams on two days of rest, there’s no schedule-based drag. At essentially even juice, this is a clean “ride the form" spot.
Domantas Sabonis Over 8.5 Rebounds
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings Matchup
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- Arena: Golden 1 Center
- Location: Sacramento, CA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 18, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
Odds: Consensus +106 | Best Price +112 @ FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis at plus money is the type of number bettors should be hunting. He’s cleared 8.5 rebounds in 75% of his season sample, and the head-to-head data is elite: seven hits in seven games versus Portland (100%). Even with a modest 40% hit rate over the last five overall, the broader trend still supports the over (70% last ten), and his season average (11.8) dwarfs the line. The floor/ceiling band is tight and favorable (floor 10.25, ceiling 13.25), and Portland’s profile here is not a stopper (opponent rank 24). Getting +112 for a line he’s historically owned is strong value. Yes, he might play fewer minutes coming back from injury, but that doesn’t steer me away from liking this pick – the matchup history is too strong, and even on a restricted workload, he should get enough run to clear eight and a half boards.
The Betting Edge
This slate has a few noisy markets, but the best props are the ones where the number is still trailing the player’s true median outcome – especially when opponent history backs it up. Stay disciplined on price, shop for the best number, and keep the card tight.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 18.
