Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target on Friday, January 9
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Ten NBA games on Friday’s slate mean plenty of prop liquidity, and plenty of chances for the market to hang a soft number. After scanning the board, the best edges appear where recent hit rates are screaming in one direction, and the price has not fully caught up.
Below are four player props from four different matchups, ranked by conviction and built around hit-rate strength plus price sensitivity (including best-available odds when they beat the consensus).
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Matchup
Arena: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Anfernee Simons Over 13.5 Points (-119 consensus)
Simons has been a pure “keep it simple" points profile lately: 100% hit rate over the line in his last five and 70% in his previous ten. That’s the kind of short-term consistency that typically forces a line move, but the market is still sitting at 13.5. There’s also a slight price edge available: -105 at Fanatics versus -119 consensus, which matters on a prop that is already trending strongly to the over.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards Matchup
Arena: Capital One Arena
Location: Washington, DC
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Kyshawn George Over 4.5 Assists (+118 consensus)
This is the cleanest “role + form + price" setup on the slate. George has cleared 4.5 assists in four of his last five (80%) and seven of his last ten (70%), with a 74.07% season hit rate. The market is also paying bettors to take the over: +125 at BetMGM, versus the consensus +118. When a player is hitting at this clip, and the book is still offering plus money, that is the type of number worth attacking before it flips to a juiced over.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic Matchup
Arena: Kia Center
Location: Orlando, FL
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
VJ Edgecombe Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-117 consensus)
Edgecombe’s combo line is the definition of a heater: 100% over in his last five and 80% over in his previous ten. Even with a more modest 58.06% season hit rate, the recent usage and production are clearly outpacing what this number implies. At 25.5, the market still prices him as a mid-tier secondary option, but the last two weeks have looked like a player operating above that tier, yet the line has not adjusted enough.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets Matchup
Arena: Barclays Center
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
James Harden Over 8.5 Assists (-116 consensus)
This is a market spot where the number is reasonable, but the price is the story. Harden’s assist line is sitting at 8.5 with essentially a coin-flip consensus (-116 both ways), yet FanDuel is dealing -108 on the over, which is a meaningful improvement for a high-volume stat. In a game environment where Harden’s role naturally funnels into creation, getting the better number is the edge, and this is one of the cleaner “shop the price" props on the board.
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