Fiesta Bowl Most Bet Player Props | CFP Semis: Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels

The College Football Playoff is where prop markets often drift away from matchup reality, and the Fiesta Bowl between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels is no exception. Bettors have zeroed in on a handful of player props, creating a mix of volume-driven overs and discipline-based unders worth breaking down.

Below are the most bet props by ticket count at BetMGM, with the data and matchup context behind each position.

Where to Watch (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels

• Stadium: State Farm Stadium
• Location: Glendale, AZ
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Download Here)
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

• Spread: MIA -3 (-115) | MISS +3 (-105)
• Total: Over 52.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
• Moneyline: MIA -165 | MISS +140

(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels Kalshi Odds

• Chance: MIA 60% | MISS 40%
• Spread: MIA -3.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
• Total: Over 51.5 Yes 53¢ | No 48¢

Kewan Lacy Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

At first glance, fading Kewan Lacy feels uncomfortable. He finished third nationally in rushing with 1,464 yards, averaging 104.6 yards per game, and has gone over this number in nine games, including his last four.

The matchup, however, tells a different story. Miami owns the fifth-ranked run defense in the country, allowing just 84 rushing yards per game. This is a unit built to clog lanes and force offenses to win outside. Lacy also landed exactly on 78 yards once, meaning there’s minimal margin for error.

This under isn’t about talent — it’s about defensive structure and pace. Bettors are banking on Miami making Ole Miss more one-dimensional than usual.

Dae’Quan Wright Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

This number feels light for a receiver with Dae’Quan Wright’s role. He’s hauled in 36 receptions for 571 yards, averaging 43.9 yards per game, and has cleared this total in nine of 13 games.

Miami’s defense ranks 40th against the pass, allowing 200.4 passing yards per game, and Wright doesn’t need volume to cash — one or two chunk plays gets this home. With Ole Miss expected to test Miami’s secondary rather than run directly into strength, Wright’s involvement lines up cleanly with the game script.

Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

This prop sits at the crossroads of opportunity and matchup. Mark Fletcher has totaled 947 rushing yards this season, averaging 78.9 per game, and has gone over this number in five of 12 contests.

Ole Miss’ run defense ranks 65th nationally, allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game, and Miami has shown a willingness to lean on Fletcher when games stay competitive. If the Hurricanes control tempo early, Fletcher’s workload could push him past this number by the fourth quarter.

Trinidad Chambliss Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Trinidad Chambliss doesn’t need many touches to matter. He’s averaging 37.1 rushing yards per game with 520 total yards, clearing this line in eight of 14 games.

This prop is less about game flow and more about role certainty. Chambliss consistently finds lanes in rotational usage, and Miami’s defense will be tested if Chambliss gets out of the pocket. Bettors are backing efficiency over volume here.

Malachi Toney Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Malachi Toney’s raw production jumps off the page — 94 receptions and 1,008 yards, fourth-most catches in college football. But recent form has cooled, as he’s gone under this number in six of 14 games, including his last two.

Ole Miss ranks 31st nationally in pass defense, allowing just 194 yards per game, and has limited high-volume receivers by forcing shorter, contested routes. With Miami spreading targets and Ole Miss likely bracketing Toney in key situations, bettors are siding with regression rather than reputation.

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The most bet Fiesta Bowl props reflect a clear theme: trust elite defenses, exploit role players with efficient usage, and fade inflated star numbers when matchup pressure rises. This market isn’t chasing season-long averages — it’s reacting to who controls the terms of the game.