Memphis vs Tulane Week 14 Prediction | College Football Picks Today, Best Bets

The Tulane Green Wave have assured themselves of a spot in the AAC Championship Game, but that won’t stop the Memphis Tigers from trying to end their perfect run through conference play. Tulane ran the table against American Athletic Conference teams this season, going a perfect 7-0 so far and setting up a championship tilt versus the Army Black Knights. Still, they can’t look past a fierce Tigers squad in Week 14. Memphis’ championship aspirations came to a grinding halt with road losses to the Navy Midshipmen and UTSA Roadrunners. Nevertheless, they were once considered to be a playoff contender. Now trying to insulate their position in a more prestigious bowl game, the Tigers will be looking to pad their resume with an upset win over the Green Wave.

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Where to Watch Memphis vs Tulane

Location: Yulman Stadium (New Orleans, LA)
Time: Thursday, November 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
Spread: Tulane -13.5 | Moneyline: Tulane -500 | Total: 55.5

Memphis vs Tulane Best Bet ATS: Tulane -13.5

It’s worth noting that the Tigers’ only two losses this season came on the road against conference opponents, but their deficit goes well beyond past performances. Memphis will need to get past one of the top ATS programs in the country. The Green Wave are a magnificent 9-2 against the spread this season, including 8-1 as the favorites. Moreover, they’ve seemingly gotten better as the season progresses. Tulane has given up just nine total points over its past three games, with opponents mustering 153.7 yards per game. The Tigers have been less successful at covering numbers this season. Memphis is 5-5-1 against the spread, including a lackluster 1-3-1 since Week 8. Many of those issues tie into not getting the most out of their offense. The Tigers were expected to dazzle opponents, but instead, they consistently came up short in terms of production. That hampers their outlook on Thursday night, leaving an edge in backing Tulane to cover the spread at home.

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Memphis vs Tulane Best Bet Total: Under 55.5

Memphis’ defense hasn’t been as bad as some of their scores imply. The Tigers give up 370.8 yards per game this season, ranking in the top half of the FBS programs. Moreover, their defensive footprint actually improves as the visitors. The Tigers give up fewer yards as the visitors, which has an inverse relationship with their defensive scoring metrics. Despite giving up fewer yards, Memphis has yielded over a six-point uptick in points allowed on the road. The Tigers allow 22.3 points per game as the hosts, but as the visitors, that number jumps to 28.8. We’re anticipating some late-season correction for Memphis. They must match Tulane’s defensive energy, which should help this one stay below the total.

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Memphis vs Tulane Best Player Props

Tulane Green Wave Makhi Hughes Under 121.5 Rushing Yards

Inconsistency has limited the Tigers’ defensive ceiling this season. However, they have consistently stacked up well against the run. So far this season, Memphis has allowed the 19th-fewest rushing yards but has dialed up the intensity with their most recent opponents. The last three teams they’ve faced have totaled a combined 250 yards for a tidy average of 83.3 per game. That stout play will make it hard for Makhi Hughes to eclipse his rushing yard total on Thursday night. His recent below-average performances also support Hughes’s projected decline. Despite an increasing workload, the sophomore has been held to 117 yards or fewer in two of three. Further, he’s seen a sharp decrease in his effectiveness, with Hughes falling below 4.3 yards per carry in both contests. That’s a significant decline from his season average of 5.5, and even further off the 6.1, he was averaging in the five games prior. In assessing all the variables, we predict Hughes will fall short of his rushing yards prop against the Tigers.