NFL Divisional Round Betting Guide: Best Spread, Total, and Moneyline Picks

The NFL Divisional Round is where the noise fades, and the margins tighten. Wild Card chaos gives way to cleaner matchups, sharper game plans, and markets that often lag behind reality. Defensive consistency, quarterback decision-making, and situational edges matter more than ever — especially with fewer games and more public money in play.

Let’s dive into our best bets, one from each game as we march toward Super Bowl LX.

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NFL Divisional Round Picks

Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Betting Odds

Spread: BUF +1.5 (-115) | DEN -1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 46.5 (-108) | Under (-112)
Moneyline: BUF +100 | DEN -118

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Kalshi Odds

Chance: BUF 48% | DEN 52%
Spread: DEN -2.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢
Total: Over 44.5 Yes 55¢ | No 46¢

The market has officially flipped on the Buffalo Bills, pushing the Bills to +1.5 road underdogs after opening the week as favorites. It’s a familiar path after last week’s line movement against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and once again, Buffalo finds itself priced like the inferior team.

Offensively, the approach is unchanged. Josh Allen remains the focal point, capable of tilting a game through the air or on the ground when possessions tighten. The key correction comes defensively. Buffalo gave up 381 yards to the Jaguars, a clear deviation from a unit that allows just 306.4 yards per game and leads the league with 156.9 passing yards allowed per game. Before Wild Card Weekend, the Bills held two straight opponents to 191 yards or fewer, a defensive baseline they’ll look to reassert in Denver.

The Broncos lean heavily on their defense and passing game, but that formula runs into Buffalo’s strengths. Few teams have had success throwing against the Bills’ secondary, especially when pressure ramps up. Denver also lacks balance on the ground, as RJ Harvey is averaging 3.7 yards per carry and has failed to reach 50 rushing yards in three consecutive games.

This matchup profiles as a controlled, low-scoring affair where execution matters more than volume. With the number now flipped, Buffalo doesn’t need dominance — just efficiency. Getting points with the better quarterback in this setup is the value, and we’ll gladly welcome even money on the ML.

Bills vs Broncos Best Bet: Bills Moneyline +100

Where to Watch San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Stadium: Lumen Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: Saturday (January 17), 8:00 p.m. ET

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds

Spread: SF +7 (-105) | SEA -7 (-115)
Total: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: SF +280 | SEA -350

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Kalshi Odds

Chance: SF 27% | SEA 73%
Spread: SEA -6.5 Yes (54¢) | No (47¢)
Total: Over 45.5 Yes (49¢) | No (53¢)

For the third time this season, the San Francisco 49ers face the NFC West–champion Seattle Seahawks, but this version of the matchup looks very different than it did in Week 1. Injuries have reshaped the 49ers’ roster, most notably the loss of George Kittle to a torn Achilles, the latest in a run of devastating lower-body injuries to core veterans.

That puts more on Brock Purdy, who struggled in Week 18 when Seattle limited him to 127 passing yards. Still, the bigger picture is more encouraging. Purdy owns a 105.0 passer rating across four career starts in Seattle, all wins, and enters this game having helped San Francisco average 30.0 points per game since his return from injury in Week 11.

Seattle earned the NFC’s top seed and a bye behind the league’s most complete defense. The Seahawks allowed just 17.2 points per game, best in the NFL, and held San Francisco to three points or fewer in their previous meeting in Week 18. Offensively, Sam Darnold continues to operate efficiently, supported by a ground game that produced 171 rushing yards on 5.18 yards per carry with a touchdown the last time these teams met. Even so, Seattle failed to score more than 13 points in either matchup against the 49ers this season.

The market has pushed San Francisco out to +7, making the 49ers the biggest underdog of the Divisional Round. That feels rich. Trent Williams is expected back after missing Week 18, when Seattle’s front overwhelmed the line for three sacks and eight QB hits. With protection stabilized and San Francisco owning an 8–2 ATS road record, this sets up as a tighter game than the last meeting.

49ers vs Seahawks Best Bet: 49ers +7

Where to Watch Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: Sunday 3:00 p.m. ET

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Betting Odds

Spread: HOU +3 (-105) | NE -3 (-115)
Total: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
Moneyline: HOU +150 | NE -178

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Kalshi Odds

Chance: HOU 40% | NE 60%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes 48¢ | No 54¢
Total: Over 41.5 Yes 47¢ | No 54¢

The Houston Texans didn’t reach the Divisional Round by accident. Houston is here because of a league-best defense, but the offense showed enough late against the Pittsburgh Steelers to suggest there’s more to unlock. Turnovers dragged the Wild Card game into uncomfortable territory, yet there were clear signs that C.J. Stroud settled in as the game wore on — and that matters heading into this matchup with the New England Patriots.

Stroud’s night in Pittsburgh started shaky. Two fumbles and an interception kept the Steelers hanging around far longer than they should have. Still, once the dust settled, the production was there. He finished 21-of-32 for 250 yards and a touchdown, with much of that coming after Nico Collins exited with a concussion. With six other pass-catchers topping 200 receiving yards this season, the infrastructure is there for Stroud to build on that late-game rhythm.

That efficiency bump is key in a matchup where New England’s offense has quietly hit another gear. Since TreVeyon Henderson emerged as a featured rusher, the Patriots have averaged 408.2 total yards per game over their last nine, clearing 440 yards in three of their previous four. The scoring followed: 29.9 points per game in that stretch, with 31-plus in four of the past six.

Both defenses carry real weight, but this game profiles differently. Houston’s offense is due for positive regression, and New England has already been living in that space. With the market lagging behind the recent scoring trends, the value sits with the total.

Texans vs Patriots Best Bet: Over 40.5 (-115)

Where to Watch Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

Stadium: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: NBC/Peacock
Time: Sunday (January 18), 6:30 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears Betting Odds

Spread: LAR -3.5 (-118) | CHI +3.5 (-104)
Total: Over 48.5 (-105) | Under (-115)
Moneyline: LAR -205 | CHI +172

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears Kalshi Odds

Chance: LAR 63% | CHI 36%
Spread: LAR -3.5 Yes (53¢) | No (48¢)
Total: Over 47.5 Yes (54¢) | No (47¢)

The Divisional Round wraps up at Soldier Field, where the Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Rams with a trip to the conference title game on the line. It’s Chicago’s first Divisional Playoff game at home since 2011, and the market is giving them little margin for error.

Despite another cross-country trip, Los Angeles enters as 3.5-point favorites, carrying a 63% win probability per Kalshi. The total sits at 48.5, the highest on the board, reflecting the offensive firepower on both sides. Quarterback play headlines the matchup, with former No. 1 picks Matthew Stafford (71.1 QBR) and Caleb Williams (58.4 QBR) driving two of the league’s most productive offenses.

Stafford’s MVP case is real after throwing 46 touchdown passes, plus three more in the Wild Card round, but ball security has crept in. Over his last six games, he’s thrown seven interceptions and lost two fumbles. That matters against a Bears defense that forced an NFL-best 33 turnovers, including 23 interceptions, during the regular season.

Chicago isn’t a team built to be dismissed lightly. With Williams getting his full receiving corps back, the Bears are positioned to challenge a Rams secondary that has allowed 216.7 passing yards per game, a number that’s jumped to 252 yards per game over the last six. If Chicago wins the turnover battle — something they’ve done better than anyone all season — the path to an outright upset is there.

At this price, the value sits with the home dog.

Bears vs Rams Best Bet: Bears Moneyline (+172)

Below is a concise recap of our NFL Divisional Round best bets, focusing on value-driven sides and totals shaped by matchup edges, market movement, and efficiency trends.

Game	Bet Type	Pick	Odds
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots	Total	Over 40.5	-115
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos	Moneyline	Buffalo Bills	+100
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks	Spread	San Francisco 49ers +7	-110
Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams	Moneyline	Chicago Bears	+172