2026 AFC Championship Game Best Bets: Patriots vs Broncos

The NFL playoffs are finally here. The holidays have passed, and incidentally, there are plenty of postseason betting opportunities between now and Super Bowl LX on February 8. We’ve got you covered!

Where to Watch New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS/Paramount+
Time: Sunday (January 25), 3:00 p.m. ET

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

Spread: NE -5.5 (-104) | DEN +5.5 (-118)
Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: NE -245 | DEN +200

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Kalshi Odds

Chance: NE 69% | DEN 32%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes (55¢) | No (45¢)
Total: Over 53.5 Yes (46¢) | No (54¢)

The AFC-East champion New England Patriots and the top-seeded Denver Broncos will meet this weekend to settle conference supremacy. With Denver maintaining home-field advantage, the energy will be percolating in the Mile High.

Many are supporting the Pats in this Sunday’s title bid, and with the Broncos losing starting quarterback Bo Nix (ankle) last weekend, it is easy to see why. Still, veteran signal caller Jarrett Stidham will take the snaps for the remainder of the season.

Stidham’s on-field action is somewhat limited. He has not started a game in the past two years. Overall, he’s seen time in 20 NFL contests, showcasing an 8-8 TD-INT clip along the way. Before landing in Denver, Stidham played for New England. He also had a brief stint with the Las Vegas Raiders.

New England is playing a circumspect brand of football. Quarterback Drake Maye thrived in his second season, compiling a 77.1 QBR to go with 4,394 passing yards. From that, New England’s offense produced 28.8 PPG in 2025. Also, the Patriots went 8-0 on the road in 2025.

Both squads are powered by defenses that are athletic and physical.

Denver churned out a monumental season in terms of getting after opposing quarterbacks, tallying a franchise record 68 sacks. Subsequently, the Broncos allowed just 18.3 PPG. On the other sideline, New England was one of the stingiest groups to run the football against, giving up just 101.7 YPG rushing. From that, the Pats surrendered just 18.8 PPG.

SportsGrid’s predictive model yields a 74% chance of a Patriots win. Additionally, New England is projected to win by seven points here. I’ll take the Pats ATS.

Best Bet: Patriots -5.5 (-104)

I like under 42.5 total points in the AFC title game for several reasons.

For starters, Denver was one of the more profitable teams for under bettors in 2025, and that was obviously with Nix still behind center. Moreover, the under has hit in 10 of 18 (55.6%) Broncos contests this season. With Nix on the shelf, I certainly don’t expect their offense to improve.

This bid will feature two of the NFL’s top defenses. Both Denver and New England have explosive talent at all three levels. To make things even scarier, these units are mostly healthy as they enter the AFC championship. I expect points to be at a premium.

Finally, the weather in Colorado’s capital city is projected to be quite cold this weekend. Sunday’s forecast in the Mile High will bring freezing (but dry) temperatures. Conditions like that will undoubtedly slow down the respective offenses.