NFL Championship Sunday Betting Guide: Best Game Picks, Top TDs and Props

The AFC and NFC Championship matchups are set for an icy Sunday, and while the bright lights of the Super Bowl are within reach, bettors are looking at a slate where tactical mismatches and weather conditions are the real stars of the show. Whether it’s the arctic air in Denver or a backfield vacuum in Seattle, the narrative isn’t just about who wins—it’s about how the conditions dictate the box score.

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NFL Championship Sunday Central

Best Game Bets: NE-DEN | LAR-SEA
Plus Props: NE-DEN | LAR-SEA | More TDs: NE-DEN | LAR-SEA

AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Broncos Cold-Weather Clash

The effect of an arctic blast on a backup-led offense may still be underrated. The Denver Broncos are hosting the New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High this Sunday, in a matchup where the “thin air" takes a back seat to bone-chilling cold. Kickoff temperatures are expected to hover around 32°F with wind gusts up to 18 mph, and there’s a persistent threat of light snow. The biggest Frenchman in Denver isn’t André the Giant, but the mountain of pressure on Jarrett Stidham, who steps in for the injured Bo Nix in the biggest game of his life.

Where to Watch New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, CO
Where to Watch: CBS/Paramount+
Time: Sunday (January 25), 3:00 p.m. ET

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

Spread: NE -5.5 (-104) | DEN +5.5 (-118)
Total: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: NE -245 | DEN +200

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Kalshi Odds

Chance: NE 69% | DEN 32%
Spread: NE -3.5 Yes (55¢) | No (45¢)
Total: Over 53.5 Yes (46¢) | No (54¢)

The effect of an arctic blast on a backup-led offense may still be underrated. The Broncos are hosting the Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High this Sunday, in a matchup where the “thin air" takes a back seat to bone-chilling cold. The biggest storyline is Jarrett Stidham stepping in for Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending injury in the Divisional Round.

Best Game Bet: Under 42.5 Total Points (-110)

Defensive Dominance: This bid features two of the NFL’s top defensive units led by Mike Vrabel and Sean Payton. Both Denver and New England have displayed explosive talent at all three levels, and points will be at a premium in a game between the AFC’s two most balanced teams.
The “Nix" Factor: Denver was one of the league’s more profitable teams for under bettors in 2025. With Nix on the shelf, the offense is expected to pivot toward a conservative, run-heavy plan under Stidham.
Arctic Conditions: Sunday’s Mile High forecast brings freezing temperatures (28°F–42°F), and wind gusts up to 18 mph. Conditions like that undoubtedly slow down aerial attacks, especially with a backup quarterback at the helm.

Top Prop: Stefon Diggs OVER 4.5 Receptions (+116)

The Patriots’ veteran receiver has been a safety valve for rookie sensation Drake Maye all season. Stefon Diggs became the first Patriot since Julian Edelman to surpass 1,000 receiving yards after returning from an ACL tear. In a hostile environment with crowd noise disrupting communication, expect Maye to tunnel-vision on his most experienced veteran for quick-separation relief against an elite pass rush.

Best TD Scorer Pick: Courtland Sutton (+290)

If the Broncos are going to score through the air, it will likely be on a 50/50 ball where Courtland Sutton can use his frame. Sutton led the team in TD receptions (7) and finished with over 1,000 yards in the regular season. He remains one of the league’s best at high-pointing footballs in contested coverage, and with New England loading the box to stop the run, Sutton should see plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities.

NFC Championship: Seahawks Host Rams in Seattle Slugfest

The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams will square off at Lumen Field this Sunday for a trip to Super Bowl LX. This is the third meeting between these divisional rivals, with each team registering a narrow home win during the regular season.

Where to Watch Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Stadium: Lumen Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: Sunday (January 25), 6:30 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds

Spread: LAR +2.5 (-110) | SEA -2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 46.5 (-120) | Under (-102)
Moneyline: LAR +118 | SEA -138

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Kalshi Odds

Chance: LAR 43% | SEA 58%
Spread: SEA -2.5 Yes (50¢) | No (50¢)
Total: Over 47.5 Yes (48¢) | No (52¢)

Best Game Bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-110)

Dominant Seattle Defense: Seattle posted a suffocating defense in 2025, allowing just 17.2 PPG. They showcased this last weekend by shellacking the 49ers 41-6, creating three turnovers in the rout.
Stafford’s MVP Form: The Rams are powered by MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford, who has orchestrated back-to-back game-winning drives in the playoffs. Stafford threw for a razor-sharp 46-8 TD-INT ratio this year.
Home Field Edge: Seattle has gone 13-5 (72.2%) ATS this season. Predictive models currently favor the top-seeded Hawks at home, where they previously defeated the Rams in an overtime thriller.

Top Prop Pick: Kenneth Walker III OVER 20 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kenneth Walker III has smashed his receiving totals in both meetings against the Rams this season, including a 46-yard reception in their last matchup. The 25-year-old is set for a significant workload after backfield mate Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the Divisional Round. Walker‘s elite speed makes him a dual-threat weapon that the Rams struggled to contain.

Best TD Scorer Pick: Kenneth Walker III (-170)

With Charbonnet officially out, the Seahawks’ backfield belongs entirely to Walker. He is coming off a massive three-touchdown performance against the 49ers. Without Charbonnet to vulture goal-line touches, Walker’s path to the end zone is the most straightforward it has been all season.

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