Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Market Analysis | UCL 2026

Atalanta returns to Italy with a steep mountain to climb after a 2-0 defeat in Germany during the first leg. While Borussia Dortmund currently holds the driver’s seat, the “sharp money" is keeping a close eye on the hostile environment at the New Balance Arena, where the Nerazzurri are known for their high-octane European nights. The question for bettors is whether the Italian side can find the early breakthrough needed to unsettle a disciplined Dortmund squad or if the visitors will professionally close out the tie to advance.

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Where to Watch Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund

• Arena: New Balance Arena

• Location: Bergamo, Italy

• Where to Watch: Paramount+

• Date: Wednesday, February 25th

• Time: 12:45 p.m. ET

Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Game Odds

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Match Breakdown: Offensive Efficiency vs. Protective Leads

• The Clinical Force: Serhou Guirassy remains the primary threat for Dortmund, leading the visitors with four goals and three assists in nine matches this campaign. His ability to hold up play and facilitate for Julian Brandt will be crucial in absorbing Atalanta’s expected early pressure.

• Playmaking Imbalance: Dortmund has been far more productive offensively in this competition, totaling 21 goals and 16 assists compared to Atalanta’s 10 goals and six assists. However, Atalanta’s defense has remained relatively firm, conceding only 12 goals to Dortmund’s 17.

• Home Hope: Charles De Ketelaere leads the Atalanta line with two goals in European play. He must find his clinical edge tonight to overcome a minus two-goal difference that currently separates these two sides.

• Historical Context: The last meeting between these two on February 17 resulted in a 2-0 Dortmund victory. While Dortmund historically holds a 3-2 edge from their 2018 Europa League meetings, Atalanta has proven they can win this fixture, having secured a 1-0 friendly victory back in 2017.

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The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

• The “Smart Money" Move: Despite trailing on aggregate, the Kalshi market favors a home victory tonight, giving Atalanta a 47% probability to win the match outright.

• Goal Expectations: Traders are leaning toward an active afternoon in Bergamo, with a 58% probability that the match sees Over 2.5 goals scored. This aligns with Atalanta’s need to chase the game from the opening whistle.

• Overcoming the Margin: While a win is predicted for the hosts, the market is skeptical of them overturning the aggregate lead; there is only a 12% probability that Atalanta wins by over 1.5 goals.

• Dortmund’s Advantage: Holding a two-zero lead, Dortmund only needs a draw—currently sitting at a 24% probability—to comfortably advance to the next round.

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