Paris Saint-Germain vs. AS Monaco Prediction, Odds & Market Analysis | UCL 2026

Paris Saint-Germain returns home with a narrow advantage after a hard-fought 3-2 victory in the first leg against their domestic rivals. While the Parisians hold the edge, AS Monaco has already proven they can stun the reigning French giants, having secured a 1-0 win in their most recent league meeting in November. The “sharp money" is debating whether PSG’s star-studded attack will overwhelm the visitors or if Monaco’s high-intensity style will force a turnaround in what has become a heated all-French European clash.

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Where to Watch Paris Saint-Germain vs. AS Monaco

• Arena: Parc des Princes

• Location: Paris, France

• Where to Watch: Paramount+

• Date: Wednesday, February 25th

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Paris Saint-Germain vs. AS Monaco Game Odds

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Match Breakdown: Parisian Firepower vs. Monegasque Resilience

• The Midfield Engine: Vitinha has been the primary creative force for PSG in this competition, leading the team with five goals in nine matches. His ability to dictate tempo will be critical in preventing Monaco from finding the transitional moments they crave.

• Monaco’s Goal Threat: Folarin Balogun remains the focal point for the visitors, having netted two goals in nine European appearances this season. He is supported by Takumi Minamino, who leads the team in assists with three.

• Creative Disparity: PSG has been significantly more clinical in the final third, recording 18 team assists compared to just six for Monaco. This gap in playmaking is reflected in their plus-11 goal difference, while Monaco sits at a minus-seven.

• Head-to-Head History: While PSG won the first leg 3-2, Monaco has proven they are a difficult out, winning their last league meeting in late 2025. Over their last five competitive meetings, PSG has won three, Monaco has won one, and there has been one draw.

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The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

• The “Smart Money" Move: The Kalshi market is heavily backing a home win, giving PSG a 78% probability to secure the victory tonight.

• Expect High Volume: Traders are anticipating another shootout, with a 54% probability for Over 3.5 goals scored. Given that the aggregate score is only separated by one goal, Monaco must push the pace eventually.

• Margin of Victory: The market shows high confidence in a comfortable PSG result, giving them a 58% chance to win by over 1.5 goals.

• Monaco’s Uphill Battle: To advance, Monaco needs an outright win or a high-scoring draw; however, the market currently only gives them a 10% chance to win the match in Paris.

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