Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction, Odds & Market Analysis | UCL 2026

Real Madrid returns to the Santiago Bernabéu holding a narrow 1-0 advantage following their professional victory in the first leg against Benfica. While the Spanish giants are traditionally dominant at home, Benfica has already proven they can breach this defense, having secured a high-scoring 4-2 win in a previous meeting just last month. The “sharp money" is monitoring whether Kylian Mbappé and company will professionally close out the series or if the visitors can find the clinical edge needed to stage a historic upset in Madrid.

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Where to Watch Real Madrid vs. Benfica

• Arena: Santiago Bernabéu

• Location: Madrid, Spain

• Where to Watch: Paramount+

• Date: Wednesday, February 25th

• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

Real Madrid vs. Benfica Game Odds

Kalshi Prediction Market Odds

Match Breakdown: Elite Firepower vs. Tactical Resilience

• The Global Superstar: Kylian Mbappé remains the focal point for the Madrid attack, leading the team with 13 goals in only eight matches during this campaign. His ability to exploit even the smallest defensive gaps makes him the primary threat for a Benfica backline that has conceded 13 goals so far.

• Playmaking Depth: Real Madrid’s creative engine is humming with high team assists, led by Vinícius Jr. and Arda Güler, who have provided four apiece. This significantly outpaces Benfica’s assist numbers, highlighting the disparity in chance creation between the two sides.

• Benfica’s Goal Threat: Vangelis Pavlidis leads the line for the visitors with two goals and two assists in nine matches. If Benfica is to overturn the deficit, Pavlidis must be clinical against a Madrid defense that has remained relatively firm, allowing only 12 goals.

• Aggregate Standing: Following the 1-0 result in the first leg on February 17, Benfica must win by at least one goal tonight to force extra time.

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The Prediction Market: Betting the Fallout

• The “Smart Money" Move: The prediction market shows strong confidence in the hosts, giving Real Madrid a 64% probability to win the match outright.

• Goal Probabilities: Traders are leaning toward a more measured pace, with a 44% probability for Over 3.5 goals scored. This suggests the market expects Madrid to prioritize control over an all-out offensive barrage.

• Spread Analysis: There is a 41% probability that Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals. While likely to win, the market isn’t fully certain of a blowout victory against this Benfica side.

• Benfica’s Upset Potential: The probability for a Benfica victory in Madrid sits at 16%, while a draw—which would see Madrid advance—is priced at 20%.

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