Best NBA Bets Thursday, February 12: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Three games tonight, and two of them are sitting in that weird zone where the market is basically daring you to lay points. I’m fine with that. Our record is 43-32 heading into the last set of games before the All-Star break, and I’m not getting cute on a short board.
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Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks Tonight
- Arena: Paycom Center
- Location: Oklahoma City, OK
- Date: February 12, 2026
- Time: 07:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Thunder vs. Bucks Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +13.5 (-114) | +500 | 16.67% | 15% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -13.5 (-107) | -701 | 87.52% | 84% |
Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
This is a profile gap game. Oklahoma City is second in points per game (120.2) and first in points allowed (108.0). That’s the exact combo you want when you’re laying a big number. You’re not asking them to win a shootout. You’re asking them to win clean.
The matchup math is ugly for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 27th in points per game (111.8) and 22nd in defensive rating (117.6). And Oklahoma City’s defense is built to squeeze the life out of guards – second-fewest point guard points allowed (11.4) and fewest point guard assists allowed (3.7). That matters against a Milwaukee group that already coughs it up, while the Thunder are second in turnovers (12.4) and second in turnovers forced (17.1). That’s extra possessions. That’s how favorites turn a ten-point game into a twenty-point cover.
One more thing. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so I’m not leaning on rest. I’m leaning on identity. Oklahoma City has it. Milwaukee doesn’t right now.
Expert Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Tonight
- Arena: Crypto.com Arena
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
- Date: February 12, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Lakers vs. Mavericks Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Dallas Mavericks | +7.5 (-111) | +252 | 28.41% | 26% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -7.5 (-110) | -314 | 75.85% | 74% |
Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
This one starts with availability. Luka Doncic (hamstring) is out for the Los Angeles Lakers. Dallas is also missing bodies. Cooper Flagg (midfoot) is out. Then it stacks. Naji Marshall (foot) is questionable. Caleb Martin (ankle) is questionable. That’s a lot of ball-handling and wing minutes sitting in limbo for a road dog.
Now the form. The Lakers are 6-4 straight up at home and 6-4 against the spread in this split. Dallas is 2-8 in their away split in their last 10. That’s not a small-sample blip. That’s a team consistently failing to travel.
I’m also buying the Lakers’ efficiency edge here. Los Angeles is 10th in offensive rating (117.4), while Dallas sits 26th in offensive rating (111.1) and 29th in made threes per game (10.9). If the Mavericks aren’t bombing threes, how are they keeping pace on the road with this many bodies missing?
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
- Best Bet (3 units): Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5
- Expert Pick (2 units): Los Angeles Lakers -7.5
Short slate. Two spots. Two favorites I’m willing to ride because the matchup profiles actually justify the tax. If you want to fade large numbers, I understand. I’m stepping on them tonight. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 12.
