Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Thursday, February 12

Back-to-backs are doing the scheduling work tonight. Four of the teams are on zero days’ rest, and that’s where prop markets can get sloppy. The best edges show up in role clarity spots and in lines that haven’t caught up to opponent-specific history.

This card leans into two overs with elite matchup history, plus two unders where recent form screams caution.

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Best NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds: Thursday, February 12

The Pick: Bobby Portis Over 5.5 Rebounds

Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks Tonight

• Arena: Paycom Center
• Location: Oklahoma City, OK
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 12, 2026
• Time: 07:30 PM ET

Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Bobby Portis gets the nod because the matchup history is as clean as it gets. He’s 4-for-4 against the Oklahoma City Thunder on this rebound line. He’s also cleared it in 80% of his last five and 80% of his last ten. The season baseline supports it too, with a 6.6 rebound average against a 5.5 line. And this is a better setup on the road, where he’s at 6.9 rebounds versus 6.2 at home. The floor-to-ceiling range is workable for this number, with a 4.0 floor and 9.0 ceiling.

The Pick: Lauri Markkanen Over 20.5 Points

Where to Watch the Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers Tonight

• Arena: Delta Center
• Location: Salt Lake City, UT
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 12, 2026
• Time: 09:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Lauri Markkanen is the rare points over that doesn’t need a perfect shooting night. He’s hit over 20.5 in 60% of his last five and 60% of his last ten. The season average is the real separator at 26.9 points. Then comes the hammer: 5-for-5 against the Portland Trail Blazers on this line. Even with Utah on a back-to-back, the number is still sitting at 20.5, and Markkanen’s 20.0 floor keeps the downside from getting too scary. The ceiling is 31.25, which is plenty of room.

The Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 19.5 Points

Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks Tonight

• Arena: Paycom Center
• Location: Oklahoma City, OK
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 12, 2026
• Time: 07:30 PM ET

Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

Chet Holmgren has been stuck under this number for a while, and the streak is loud. He’s 0-for-5 in his last five games on 19.5 points, with his last 6 games all going under. The longer view isn’t much better, with a 30% hit rate in his last ten and a 17.6 season average against a 19.5 line. The opponent history also leans under, with Holmgren clearing it in just one of four versus the Milwaukee Bucks.

This is also a back-to-back spot for Oklahoma City. That’s not where bettors want to pay for a ceiling game.

The Pick: LeBron James Under 23.5 Points

Where to Watch the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Tonight

• Arena: Crypto.com Arena
• Location: Los Angeles, CA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 12, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of February 12, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET

LeBron James is priced like a steady mid-twenties scorer, but the recent results don’t match. He’s gone under 23.5 points in four of his last five, and he’s sitting at 20% in both his last five and last ten. The season average is 21.8, so the line is still shaded to the high side. The home split also points down at 21.4 points at home versus 22.2 on the road. And the current form is trending the wrong way with a -3 streak. The floor is 17.5, which matters in an under bet at near-even pricing. Even when Luka has sat this year, LeBron is 0-5 on this line, scoring 8, 20, 20, 22, and 23.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

Four props. Two clean overs with opponent history doing the heavy lifting, and two unders where the recent hit rates are too ugly to ignore at these numbers. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 12.