Bills vs Chiefs Player Props | AFC Championship Playoff Best Bets
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Sunday’s AFC Championship matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead promises to be another thrilling chapter in their fierce rivalry. With Super Bowl aspirations on the line, both teams will rely on their star players to make game-changing plays. We’ve analyzed key props to create value-packed betting insights for this marquee showdown.
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Marquise Brown Under 3.5 Receptions (-108)
Marquise Brown is unlikely to be a significant part of the Chiefs’ offensive game plan in Sunday’s matchup. While he offers some value as an anytime touchdown option (+250), his role in the passing game appears minimal heading into this contest. The Chiefs’ offense tends to focus on their primary playmakers, and with a likely slower, more controlled tempo, Brown isn’t expected to see a high volume of targets.
In last week’s Divisional Round against the Houston Texans, Brown was targeted only twice and finished the game without a single reception. Given his limited involvement and the Chiefs’ tendency to rely on bigger priority targets, the under on Brown’s receptions is a strong betting angle in this matchup.
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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-115)
Josh Allen has consistently been a difference-maker for the Bills in matchups against the Chiefs, particularly when it comes to his ability to score on the ground. After recording two rushing touchdowns in last week’s victory over the Baltimore Ravens, Allen’s dual-threat capability is on full display heading into this AFC Championship.
Allen has a proven track record of success against Kansas City. Last season, he tallied three rushing touchdowns across two games against the Chiefs, showcasing his knack for finding the end zone in big moments. Given his recent form and pivotal role in the Bills’ offense, Allen is a strong candidate to score again on Sunday. While the odds may not offer immense value, the likelihood of Allen adding to his postseason touchdown total remains high, making this a solid prop to consider.
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
At first glance, Patrick Mahomes‘ rushing prop might seem a bit inflated, especially considering he’s only surpassed it once in his last five outings. However, postseason football is a different story for the Chiefs’ star quarterback. Mahomes has a history of stepping up with his legs in critical games, particularly against teams like the Bills. Mahomes ran for 69 yards and a score against Buffalo in their 2021 postseason meeting.
Mahomes has shown a willingness to scramble when needed in the playoffs, logging six or more rushing attempts in four of his last five postseason appearances. If he’s active as a runner again on Sunday, those attempts provide a strong pathway for him to cover his rushing total. With the added stakes and Mahomes’ proven ability to pick up yards when it counts, this prop has plenty of upside.
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 Receptions (+108)
This play offers plenty of value, especially considering the matchup. Dalton Kincaid may not have had the breakout season some anticipated, but his production against the Chiefs has been a bright spot. In two career meetings with Kansas City, Kincaid recorded five receptions in each game, totaling 13 targets across those contests. The Bills have consistently looked to exploit mismatches with Kincaid, and that trend is likely to continue in this high-stakes matchup.
Adding to the appeal, the Chiefs have struggled to contain tight ends all season, allowing the second-most receptions (6.2 per game) and the most yards (over 70 per game) to the position. With a plus-money price attached to his receptions prop, Kincaid offers strong upside as a reliable option for Buffalo’s offense. His yardage prop of 32.5 (-114) is also worth a look.
