Can A.J. Brown Fly High vs Commanders in NFC Championship?
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
As the Philadelphia Eagles gear up for the NFC Championship Game versus the Washington Commanders, all eyes are on star receiver A.J. Brown. With his receiving yards prop set at 58.5 earlier this week and now climbing to 67.5 in some markets, bettors are left wondering which side of the line they should take. Let’s break down the numbers and why the under might be the smarter play.
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The Number: 58.5 to 67.5
Initially set at 58.5, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop quickly jumped to 67.5 following news of him being a full participant in practice. This type of market movement can often reflect optimism about a player’s performance, but does the data back it up? Recent games suggest otherwise.
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Recent Trends: A.J. Brown’s Struggles
A.J. Brown’s recent performances have been underwhelming by his standards:
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Against Dallas: Under 58.5 receiving yards
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Wild Card Game vs. Packers: Just 10 receiving yards, even without Jaire Alexander on the field
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Last Week: 14 receiving yards in snowy conditions
While weather and game script have played a role, the consistent trend of low yardage raises concerns. Despite his undeniable talent, Brown hasn’t been the focal point of the Eagles’ passing attack in recent weeks.
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Betting the Under: Why It Makes Sense
Bet: A.J. Brown Under 67.5 Receiving Yards
Here’s why:
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Recent Form: Brown’s production has been below expectations in consecutive games.
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Market Overreaction: The jump from 58.5 to 67.5 feels tied more to practice reports than actual performance.
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Eagles Game Plan: This could be a “Saquon Barkley game or bust" scenario, with the Eagles relying more on the ground game and shorter passes to other receivers.
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Visual and Statistical Evidence: Nothing on tape or in the box scores suggests Brown is primed for a breakout.
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The Matchup: Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense
The Eagles’ offensive versatility allows them to adapt their game plan to exploit weaknesses. However, Brown’s recent lack of involvement indicates he might not be the centerpiece in this particular matchup. Look for quarterback Jalen Hurts to spread the ball around, leaning on options like DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and the running game.
Final Thoughts
While A.J. Brown has the talent to explode at any time, the numbers and recent trends suggest caution. Betting the under on his receiving yards at 67.5 aligns with the data and the Eagles’ likely game plan. For bettors, this could be a prime opportunity to capitalize on an inflated line. Lock it in and watch as Philadelphia looks to advance in their pursuit of another Super Bowl appearance.
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