NBA Daily Injury Report and Analysis – January 2, 2026
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest injury story on Friday’s slate is Denver’s ongoing attrition, headlined by Nikola Jokic (out) and a cluster of other rotation absences that materially change how the market should price the Nuggets. Denver still owns a 23-10 record, but the with-without splits provided show a massive performance gap when Jokic is off the floor, and bettors should treat this as a different team until the lineup stabilizes.
Across 10 games, the most impactful situations are concentrated in a few matchups: Nuggets at Cavaliers (Denver’s stars and starters missing), Hawks at Knicks (Trae Young day-to-day), Thunder at Warriors (Stephen Curry day-to-day, Draymond Green out), and Grizzlies at Lakers (Austin Reaves out, Rui Hachimura out, plus Memphis depth issues).
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Brooklyn is short-handed in the frontcourt with Nic Claxton (out) and is also missing Michael Porter Jr. (out), plus Cam Thomas (out, HIGH). Porter’s absence is the swing piece: the Nets are 10-16 this season with Porter (38.5% win rate) and 0-5 without him (0.0%). That is the type of split that can force the market to re-rate Brooklyn’s offense and spacing, especially on the second night of a back-to-back.
Washington’s listed outs (Corey Kispert, Kyshawn George, Cam Whitmore) all grade as NEGATIVE impact in the data, and the Wizards’ baseline profile is already poor (8-24, -11.5 net rating). This matchup is more about whether Brooklyn can generate enough half-court offense without its shot creation and whether the Nets’ center rotation can hold up without Claxton.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Victor Wembanyama is out (estimated return January 3), and the news cycle notes his MRI showed no ligament damage. Even with that positive context, the on-court impact is real: San Antonio is 15-6 this season with Wembanyama (71.4%) versus 9-3 without him (75.0%), which suggests the Spurs have survived the missed games, but the net rating drops from 7.2 with him to 3.2 without. Devin Vassell is also out, removing another perimeter scoring option.
Indiana’s season has cratered without Tyrese Haliburton (out), and the team context reflects it (6-28, 0-10 last 10). T.J. McConnell is day-to-day, and his split is meaningful for a team already struggling to organize offense: the Pacers are 5-17 with him (22.7%) and 1-11 without (8.3%). If McConnell sits, Indiana’s ball-handling depth gets even thinner against a Spurs team that can still pressure the rim with De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Trae Young is day-to-day, and the splits are extreme: Atlanta is 2-8 with Young this season (20.0%) and 14-10 without him (58.3%). That is a rare profile in which the market may actually upgrade Atlanta if Young is ruled out, especially given the Hawks’ recent form (2-8 last 10 overall) and the way the offense has apparently performed in the non-Trae sample.
New York has Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson both listed day-to-day, with Josh Hart out. Towns’s split is also stark: the Knicks are 21-10 with him (67.7%) and 2-0 without (100.0%) in a tiny sample, but the net rating falls from 6.7 with him to 3.5 without. If Towns is limited or out, the Knicks’ spacing and rebounding profile changes, and Robinson’s status matters for rim protection against Jalen Johnson’s downhill creation.
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Denver is the slate’s most important injury cluster. Nikola Jokic is out, Aaron Gordon is out, Christian Braun is out, Cameron Johnson is out, and Jonas Valanciunas is out, with Jamal Murray listed day-to-day. The Jokic split alone is a market mover: Denver is 22-10 with Jokic (68.8%, +7.2 net rating) and 1-0 without (100.0%, +3.0 net rating), but that one-game sample should not be over-weighted. The more actionable takeaway is the net rating drop and the sheer volume of missing starters, which forces role players into higher usage and reduces lineup continuity.
Cleveland is also dealing with backcourt and wing availability, with Max Strus out and Sam Merrill day-to-day. Merrill’s split is one of the strongest on the board: the Cavaliers are 13-5 with him (72.2%, +7.4 net rating) and 6-11 without (35.3%, -2.7 net rating). If Merrill sits again, Cleveland’s shooting depth takes a hit. At the same time, Denver’s defense is compromised by missing size and perimeter stoppers, creating a volatile handicap for both sides and potentially shifting the pace and efficiency depending on Murray’s final status.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Miles Bridges is day-to-day for Charlotte, and he is the key variable. The Hornets are 11-21 with Bridges (34.4%) and 0-1 without (0.0%), with a net rating drop from -3.0 to -7.0 in the small without sample. If Bridges is limited or out, Charlotte’s secondary scoring behind LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller becomes far less stable.
Milwaukee’s only notable absence here is Taurean Prince (out, HIGH), and the team split is meaningful: the Bucks are 5-3 with Prince (62.5%) and 9-17 without (34.6%). That suggests his minutes have been tied to their better versions, likely via spacing and defensive role stability. Bettors should still treat this as primarily a Charlotte availability game, since Milwaukee’s core is intact.
Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Chicago is missing both Josh Giddey (out) and Coby White (out), which is a significant hit to creation and ball movement. White’s split is particularly relevant: the Bulls are 8-8 with him (50.0%) and 8-9 without (47.1%), but the net rating improves from -5.0 with him to -2.2 without, suggesting Chicago has been more competitive structurally even if the offense looks different.
Orlando is without Franz Wagner (out) and has Jonathan Isaac day-to-day. Wagner’s production is star-level in the data (22.8 PPG), but his impact classification is LOW, and the team split is modest: 13-10 with him (56.5%) versus 5-5 without (50.0%). The bigger angle is lineup fit: with Wagner out, more creation consolidates around Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane, while Chicago’s guard injuries can force heavier minutes and usage for Tre Jones.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Portland is missing Jerami Grant (out) and Jrue Holiday (out), plus Scoot Henderson (out) and Matisse Thybulle (out). Grant’s absence is the cleanest signal: the Blazers are 11-15 with him (42.3%) and 3-4 without (42.9%), with a slight net rating decline (-3.0 to -6.1). Holiday’s absence also matters for organization and defense: Portland is 6-6 with him (50.0%) and 8-13 without him (38.1%).
New Orleans is without Herbert Jones (out, HIGH) and Dejounte Murray (out). Jones’s split is dramatic: the Pelicans are 7-15 with him (31.8%) and 1-12 without (7.7%). For a team already allowing 123.1 points per game, losing its top defensive wing is a direct hit to matchup integrity, especially against Portland’s high-minute creators like Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe.
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Sacramento is missing Domantas Sabonis (out) and Zach LaVine (out). LaVine’s split is a red flag: the Kings are 5-18 with him (21.7%, -10.5 net rating) and 3-8 without (27.3%, -13.3 net rating). Sabonis’s split is also poor: 2-9 with (18.2%) and 6-17 without (26.1%), with both samples reflecting a team in a deep hole either way. The practical impact is role compression for DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook, and a tougher rebounding and interior scoring profile without Sabonis.
Phoenix is without Grayson Allen (out) and Jalen Green (out). Allen’s split suggests Phoenix has been better without him (9-9 with, 9-5 without), but the net rating improves from -1.2 with to +3.4 without, which can happen when bench roles stabilize. The Suns’ core scoring remains intact with Devin Booker, and the matchup hinges on whether Sacramento can generate efficient offense without its two missing high-usage pieces.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
Golden State’s status hinges on Stephen Curry (day-to-day) with Draymond Green out. Curry’s split is meaningful: the Warriors are 14-11 with him (56.0%) and 4-5 without (44.4%). Draymond’s absence is also a defensive and playmaking hit, and the Warriors are 15-13 with him (53.6%) versus 3-3 without (50.0%), a smaller gap but still relevant against an elite opponent.
Oklahoma City is missing Isaiah Hartenstein (out) and Jaylin Williams (out), but the Thunder’s baseline is dominant (29-5, +14.6 net rating). Hartenstein’s split is extreme in the data (19-5 with, 10-0 without), but the without sample is small and likely schedule-driven. The market’s central question is whether Golden State can score enough if Curry is limited, because OKC’s defense has been the best in the league by points allowed (107.5).
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are missing Austin Reaves (out) and Rui Hachimura (out, CRITICAL), with Jarred Vanderbilt day-to-day. Hachimura’s split is the clearest signal: the Lakers are 18-8 with him (69.2%) and 1-3 without (25.0%). Reaves’s absence removes a high-usage creator (26.4 PPG, 29.0 usage rate), and while the Lakers’ record split is not as dramatic (14-8 with, 5-3 without), the offensive shape changes, with more burden on Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
Memphis has multiple rotation pieces out (including Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr.), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is day-to-day. If Caldwell-Pope sits, Memphis loses a key perimeter defender and connector, which matters against a Luka-led offense. This game profiles as a depth-and-fatigue test, with both teams leaning heavily on their stars.
Statistical impact analysis
The largest actionable with-without gaps on the slate are Sam Merrill for Cleveland (72.2% win rate with, 35.3% without), Michael Porter Jr. for Brooklyn (38.5% with, 0.0% without), and Rui Hachimura for the Lakers (69.2% with, 25.0% without). Trae Young’s split is the outlier that can flip market assumptions entirely, with Atlanta 58.3% without him versus 20.0% with him in the current sample.
Betting and fantasy implications
Bettors should be prepared for the sharpest pregame movement around Nuggets-Cavaliers (Murray status plus Denver’s missing starters) and Thunder-Warriors (Curry status). In fantasy, the best injury-driven opportunities come from usage consolidation: Cleveland’s primary creators if Merrill sits, Atlanta’s non-Trae ball-handlers if Young is ruled out, and Lakers secondary options with Reaves and Hachimura out.
Players to monitor
Terance Mann (Nets)
T.J. McConnell (Pacers)
Harrison Ingram (Spurs)
Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
Mitchell Robinson (Knicks)
Trae Young (Hawks)
De’Andre Hunter (Cavaliers)
Sam Merrill (Cavaliers)
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
Julian Strawther (Nuggets)
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
Moussa Diabate (Hornets)
Jonathan Isaac (Magic)
Saddiq Bey (Pelicans)
Derik Queen (Pelicans)
Stephen Curry (Warriors)
Al Horford (Warriors)
De’Anthony Melton (Warriors)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Grizzlies)
Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)
Jarred Vanderbilt (Lakers)
Closing
Friday’s slate is defined by two availability pivots: Denver’s depleted rotation against Cleveland and Golden State’s reliance on Stephen Curry against an elite Oklahoma City defense. The market’s best edges should come from reacting fastest to late status changes, especially in games where the with-without splits show true team-level performance swings.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
