Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target on Wednesday, January 7
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
It’s a deep Wednesday slate, and the best prop angles are coming from a mix of hot-streak role players and a few stars sitting on numbers that still haven’t fully caught up to recent form. After scanning the board, the strongest edges show up where the last five and last ten hit rates align with playable pricing (especially when the best book is beating consensus).
Below are the top five player props for January 7, ranked by conviction and spread across different matchups.
Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Matchup
Arena: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
Where to Watch: ESPN
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Derrick White Over 4.5 Rebounds (-140)
Line & Consensus Odds: 4.5 rebounds (-150 consensus)
Best Odds: -140 (DraftKings)
White’s rebounding line is still sitting in a very attackable range, given the recent profile: 80% over in his last five and 90% over in his previous ten, with a 70.59% season hit rate. That’s elite consistency for a guard rebound prop, and it’s precisely the type of market that can lag because the “median” perception stays anchored to role. At the current number, we’re betting the over because the hit-rate stack is too strong to ignore, and getting -140 vs -150 consensus is a clean price upgrade.
Aaron Gordon Over 15.5 Points (+100)
Line & Consensus Odds: 15.5 points (-109 consensus)
Best Odds: +100 (FanDuel)
Gordon’s points prop is a classic case of the market offering a plus-money tag on a profile that doesn’t deserve it right now. He’s hit the over in 80% of his last five, 80% of his previous ten, and 71.43% on the season, and FanDuel is still dealing +100 while the consensus sits -109. That’s a meaningful gap in price for the same line, and it’s precisely the type of discrepancy worth attacking. We’re betting the over because the hit rates support it, and the number is mispriced at plus money.
Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets Matchup
Arena: Spectrum Center
Location: Charlotte, NC
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Brandon Miller Over 27.5 PRA (-121)
Line & Consensus Odds: 27.5 PRA (-125 consensus)
Best Odds: -121 (Caesars)
This is the cleanest “form meets number” play on the slate. Miller is on a 100% clearing this over in his last five and has still cleared this in 70% of his last ten, with a 60% season hit rate. The market is pricing it like a coin flip (and shading under the consensus), but the recent run suggests the actual probability is higher than -121 implies. Caesars hanging -121 vs -125 consensus is enough of a discount to keep this as a top-tier over.
Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons Matchup
Arena: Little Caesars Arena
Location: Detroit, MI
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Paul Reed Under 11.5 Points (-118)
Line & Consensus Odds: 11.5 points (-122 consensus)
Best Odds: -118 (DraftKings)
This is a pure data under. Reed has gone under this number in 100% of his last five and last ten (0% hit rate to the over in both samples), and the season hit rate to the over is just 11.11%. When a player is failing a points line this consistently, the only question is whether the market has adjusted enough-here, it hasn’t. With DraftKings offering -118 vs -122 consensus, we’re taking the under at a better number in a spot where the historical probability is overwhelmingly on our side.
Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Matchup
Arena: Xfinity Mobile Arena
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
VJ Edgecombe Over 27.5 PRA (-102)
Line & Consensus Odds: 27.5 PRA (-102 consensus)
Edgecombe’s combo line is trending like a player whose role is stabilizing upward: he’s cleared 27.5 PRA in 80% of his last five and 80% of his previous ten, even though the season hit rate sits at 50%. That split is exactly what bettors want to see when hunting a “current form over a season-long baseline” edge. At essentially a pick’em price, we’re betting the over because the recent hit rates suggest this should be priced with more under juice than it currently has.
The Betting Edge
This slate has plenty of noise, but the best bets are coming from repeatable hit-rate profiles and small pricing inefficiencies (especially where best odds beat consensus). Keep the card tight, shop every line, and let the market do the heavy lifting.
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