American League MVP Race: Is Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees the Clear Favorite?

Is the 2025 AL MVP Race Already Over? Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees Is Making It Look That Way

We haven’t even reached June, and yet sportsbooks are treating the American League MVP race like it’s already decided. Judge, the towering face of the Yankees and once again the most feared bat in baseball, is listed as the heavy favorite at -300 or shorter at most major books. The message is loud and clear: this is Judge’s award to lose.

But is it really over? And where can savvy bettors still find value—either as a hedge or a longshot play with some narrative juice?

AL MVP: Judge’s Award to Lose—Literally

Judge’s current stats are staggering: a .400 OBP, 17 homers, and enough RBIs to make you forget he’s in a “slump.” That’s the kind of season he’s having—he looks slightly off, yet he’s pacing the AL in nearly every offensive category. The Yankees have surged to the top of the AL East, and Judge is the biggest reason why.

It’s not just the numbers, though. It’s the aura of Aaron Judge.

• He’s a Yankee — voters notice.

• He’s the centerpiece of a division leader — always helps.

• And he’s doing it all without being 100% locked in at the plate.

✅ Bottom Line: The only thing that can stop Judge right now is injury. And that’s the scary part for bettors—because at -300, there’s no value unless you’re using it in a hedge parlay.

If Not Judge, Then Who? Longshots to Watch

We get it—betting on Judge now is like betting on oxygen. So where do you turn if you want to take a shot on chaos?

1. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (+1600 to +2000)

If the Astros claw back into the AL West race and Bregman drives the turnaround, he could rise up fast. He has the résumé, the media exposure, and the story potential.

2. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+2500 or longer)

Flashy, exciting, and the face of a Royals team showing life. If he puts together a 30/30 season and KC surprises, he becomes a compelling narrative pick.

3. José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians (+3000+)

Year in, year out, Ramírez is elite—but never gets MVP love because, well, Cleveland. If the Guardians overachieve and Judge falters, he’s got the résumé and WAR value to back it up.

💡 Betting Angle: Small unit plays on 2–3 of these names isn’t bad insurance. If anything happens to Judge, these are the players most likely to surge.

Meanwhile, in the NL: A Real Race is Brewing

Unlike the AL, the National League MVP picture remains wide open. Shohei Ohtani is the favorite at -110, but plenty of names are lurking.

NL MVP Odds Snapshot:

• Shohei Ohtani (LAD): -110

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): +450

• Corbin Carroll (ARI): +1000

• Kyle Tucker (CHC): +1200

• Pete Alonso (NYM): +1600

• Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): +2500

Is PCA the Best Value in Baseball Futures?

Yes. Yes, he might be.

Crow-Armstrong is putting up numbers better than every name on that list. The Cubs are leading the NL Central, he’s stealing bases, hitting for power, playing elite defense—and his WAR is already in the top 5 in the NL.

The only reason he’s +2500 is name recognition, not production.

🔥 Best Value Bet Right Now: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+2500)

If the Cubs stay in first, and PCA stays healthy, this ticket could look brilliant by August.

Other NL MVP Notes:

• Ohtani’s value is already baked in, but his defense is nonexistent and the Dodgers may load-manage.

• Tatis has a path, especially if the Padres contend.

• Tucker and PCA may split some votes if they’re both near the top, but Tucker’s contract storyline could keep him front-of-mind.

MVP Betting Strategy: Judge or Chaos

• If you’re betting AL MVP now: pass on Judge unless you’re hedging, and toss some speculative units on names like Bregman or Witt.

• For NL MVP: Crow-Armstrong is the play. The numbers match the hype, and if Chicago keeps winning, the narrative will too.

Final Verdict: Judge Has the Crown—But Baseball Never Stays Predictable

Yes, Judge is the MVP frontrunner. But injuries happen. Slumps happen. And over 100 games remain. There’s still plenty of value hiding in the weeds—especially in the NL, where no one has run away with the race.

If you’re betting futures today, hold your nose and skip Judge. Look elsewhere for value, because once the calendar flips to September, you want to be sitting on a 25-to-1 ticket, not chasing juice on a runaway train.

You can read all about what’s going on in Major League Baseball at SportsGrid.com.