NCAAF · 1 year ago

Oregon Ducks Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Oregon Ducks Preview | Expert Predictions & Best Bets

On paper, the Oregon Ducks were as good as any team in the country in 2023. Their only two losses came by three points to eventual national championship runner-up Washington, on the road and in the final Pac-12 Championship Game. As good as they were, the Ducks were also a bit of a bully. Their 12 wins came by an average score of 46-13, but only one team on their schedule (Liberty) other than the Huskies lost fewer than five games. Utah, USC, and Oregon State finished 8-5 (5-4 in Pac-12 play).

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

Oregon Ducks Preview

2023 Record: 12-2 (8-1); Pac-12 Finish: 2nd

A.P. Poll: No. 3 | Coaches Poll: No. 3 | PFF: No. 6 | SP+: No. 3

Head Coach: Dan Lanning (3rd Year) | Record: 22-5

Offensive Coordinator: Will Stein (2nd Year)

Defensive Coordinator: Tosh Luppoi (3rd Year)

Oregon Ducks Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +650 | CFB Playoff Odds: -330

B1G Championship Odds: +200 | Exactly 11 Wins: +185

Win 10+ Games: -380 | Undefeated Regular Season: +320

Regular Season Wins: OVER 10.5 +118 | UNDER 10.5 -104

Oregon Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

The offense could be the best in the country. They added quarterback Dillon Gabriel to replace Bo Nix and have a one-two punch in the backfield in Jordan James (759 yards, 11 TDs, 7.1 YPC) and Noah Whittington (779 yards, 5 TDs, 5.6 YPC in 2022), who is back from injury. WR Tez Johnson is a potential All-American, Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart has first-round talent, and TE Terrance Ferguson is a productive pass catcher with quality depth behind them. Along the line of scrimmage, tackles Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius might be the best duo in college football. Oregon is strong and deep in every unit.

Oregon Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

Where’s the pass rush coming from? The Ducks seemed to plug every departure from the 2023 team with a critical addition through the transfer portal. However, it didn’t address last season’s biggest weakness, the lack of an edge rusher. Only two Ducks had more than three sacks a year ago, safety Evan Williams (4.5) and DT Brandon Dorlus (5), who are both departed. DE Jordan Burch is an outstanding player but not a true edge rusher, and he only had three sacks. They are counting on true sophomore Matayo Uiagalelei to make a giant leap. It’s not just pass rush, as Oregon finished last season 102nd in tackles for loss per game.

Oregon Breakout Player: DE Matayo Uiagalelei

Matayo Uiagalelei is one of the few Oregon recruits who was a backup last season. He had the starter in front of him on the depth chart depart and did not see a transfer added to his position to block his path. He showed flashes in limited reps as a true freshman with 18 tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks, and two passes defended. DJ Uiagalelei’s younger brother was a top 50 recruit from St. John Bosco in California, Oregon’s second-highest-rated prospect in the class of 2023 (ranked ninth).

Oregon X-Factor: Too Much Portal?

Talent is the name of the game, any which way you get it. But, Dan Lanning is asking a lot of his portal class, especially on defense. Starting defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell and four of their projected Week 1 starting defensive backs are transfers. As is starting WR Evan Stewart and, most importantly, QB1 Dillon Gabriel (QB2 Dante Moore, too). Here’s the thing with transfer quarterbacks. They usually take off with their new steam in Year 2. See Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and runner-up Michael Penix Jr. Heck, we don’t have to go further than Oregon’s own Bo Nix (third in Heisman) and Gabriel himself. Nix improved his completion percentage by 5.5%, threw for 915 more yards, 16 more TDs (4 fewer INTs), 0.8 more yards per pass, and 1.8 more yards per completion. Gabriel also saw improvement in his second season at Oklahoma with bumps in his completion percentage (6.6%), yards (492), YPA (0.9), YPC (1.1), and TDs (5). Can Gabriel be at his best in Year 1 in Eugene?

Oregon Schedule Analysis

Like most teams at the top of college football, the schedule comes down to a handful of games. It’s basically a two-game season for the Ducks unless they suffer a double-digit upset. Oregon is -1 at home versus Ohio State and -3.5 at Michigan. If they split those two, the Ducks should play in the Big Ten Championship Game. That’s not to say the schedule is littered with cupcakes—the strength of schedule is ranked 26th by SP+ and tenth by PPF—but Oregon avoids USC, Penn State, and Iowa. Other potential top 50 teams on the docket include Boise State, Maryland, and Washington (-20) at home, with trips to Oregon State (-20.5), UCLA, and Wisconsin (-11).

Oregon Prediction: OVER/UNDER 10.5 Wins

Their win total is a lofty number, and the Ducks could make the playoffs and potentially win the Big Ten with ten wins. I’d probably be on the under if Ohio State was on the road. As it is, my lean is towards the over, but this win total is a pass for me. The +100 is certainly better value than their price to win ten games (effectively over 9.5), which is -380.

Now, if you like the Ducks to win 11 games, why not just one more? The price for an undefeated regular season (+320) is the best value of any of Oregon’s futures.