NBA Prediction Markets Today: Kalshi Odds Movement Breakdown
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The NBA futures market saw sharp Kalshi movement on Sunday, highlighted by major repricing in NBA championship odds, conference title markets, and select NBA awards futures. As liquidity concentrated around elite contenders, several thinner markets experienced outsized percentage swings—creating opportunity and risk for sports bettors tracking prediction markets closely.
Below is a full breakdown of the top NBA betting trends, Kalshi market movers, and futures odds analysis heading into the new week.
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Biggest NBA Futures Movers on Kalshi
Philadelphia 76ers Surge in Eastern Conference Odds
One of the most notable shifts came in the Philadelphia 76ers Eastern Conference title odds, which jumped from 4¢ to 10¢ intraday before settling at 7¢ bid / 9¢ ask. That represents a 150% increase from the open, backed by real volume (4,516 contracts traded).
This was not a thin-market anomaly. Instead, it signals renewed confidence in Philadelphia’s path through the East, making the Sixers one of the most important teams to monitor in NBA futures betting this week.
San Antonio Spurs Cool Off in the West
The San Antonio Spurs Western Conference odds slid meaningfully, falling from 15¢ to 11¢, a 20% drop. Unlike a simple sell-off, this move came with 2,289 contracts traded and massive open interest exceeding 716,000, suggesting heavy two-way positioning.
This kind of activity often reflects institutional-style hedging rather than panic, making San Antonio a key team for bettors tracking NBA Western Conference futures.
New York Knicks Fade Amid Heavy Resistance
The New York Knicks Eastern Conference odds dropped from 30¢ to 26¢, a 10% decline, as sell-side pressure built across the orderbook. With over 3,070 contracts traded, this was another volume-backed move rather than a price glitch.
Market depth on the “No” side suggests skepticism about New York’s ability to survive a long postseason run.
Boston Celtics Championship Odds Dip on Massive Volume
The Boston Celtics NBA title odds fell from 6¢ to 5¢, a 33% decline, despite enormous activity (51,883 contracts traded). High volume with declining price often points to sophisticated money reducing exposure rather than casual speculation.
This makes Boston one of the more intriguing NBA championship betting discussions entering the week.
NBA Power Rankings Updated: Rating All 30 Teams Today
Liquidity Leaders and Market Stability
Oklahoma City Thunder Dominate NBA Futures Trading
Once again, the Oklahoma City Thunder championship market was the center of gravity on Kalshi. Sitting at 44¢ bid / 45¢ ask, the market traded 4,048 contracts in the last 24 hours and now exceeds 1.17 million total contracts.
With tight spreads and deep orderbooks, Oklahoma City remains the most efficiently priced team in NBA title betting, attracting constant rebalancing from sharp traders.
Denver Nuggets See Heavy Action Without Price Movement
The Denver Nuggets championship odds stayed flat at 9¢ bid / 10¢ ask, even as 15,025 contracts traded in 24 hours. This kind of volume without movement typically signals hedging across correlated markets rather than a directional opinion.
Savvy bettors should watch Denver-related derivatives, including conference odds and player awards, for clues.
NBA Awards Markets: Volatility and Opportunity
Defensive Player of the Year Odds Shake Up
The NBA Defensive Player of the Year market saw significant turbulence:
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Victor Wembanyama DPOY odds fell from 23¢ to 17¢ (-26.1%) on massive volume (91,774 contracts)
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Chet Holmgren DPOY odds climbed from 56¢ to 62¢ (+10.7%) on lighter volume
This classic “leader strengthens, challenger weakens” pattern suggests the market is consolidating around Holmgren.
Wide Spreads Signal Uncertainty in Clutch Player Markets
Several NBA Clutch Player of the Year markets show extreme uncertainty:
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 16¢ bid / 23¢ ask
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Anthony Edwards: 11¢ bid / 28¢ ask
Wide spreads indicate that even small trades could cause sharp price gaps—ideal for experienced prediction market bettors but risky for casual players.
Notable NBA Markets to Watch This Week
Thunder Best Regular Season Record Odds Near Ceiling
Oklahoma City is priced at 88¢ bid / 89¢ ask to finish with the best NBA regular season record, reflecting strong confidence in their consistency. Interestingly, this premium contrasts with their 44¢ championship odds, highlighting the gap between regular season dominance and postseason uncertainty.
Milwaukee Bucks Face Broad Market Pessimism
The Milwaukee Bucks playoff odds slipped to 27¢ bid / 32¢ ask, while their Eastern Conference title odds sit near rock bottom at 2¢–3¢. Wide spreads and declining prices suggest the market has little faith in a deep Bucks run.
Rookie of the Year Market Remains Top-Heavy
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Cooper Flagg ROY odds: 81¢ bid / 82¢ ask (slight drift lower)
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VJ Edgecombe ROY odds: jumped from 3¢ to 5¢ (+66.7%) on 32,470 contracts
While Flagg remains the clear favorite, Edgecombe’s volume-backed move is worth monitoring in NBA Rookie of the Year betting.
Jokic Rebounds Market – I’m Fading This Really Hard on Kalshi
Final Takeaways for NBA Bettors
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Philadelphia’s Eastern Conference odds spike was the clearest directional move of the day
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San Antonio and New York cooled off, backed by real volume and resistance
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Oklahoma City continues to anchor NBA futures liquidity, offering the cleanest price discovery
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Wide spreads in awards markets create volatility—and opportunity—for sharp bettors
As the new week begins, all eyes will be on whether Philadelphia’s East momentum holds and whether San Antonio stabilizes amid heavy two-way action.
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